Research On The Key Statistic Technology In Emergency Management

At present, our country is in the period of the social transformation and high occurrence frequency of emergency. Therefore, in order to maintain social stability, and protect the people's life and property security, it is very necessary that researching the emergency risk, the contingency ability and forecasting and warning technology comprehensively and overall. In the all kinds of study of dealing with emergency, people study more from management, and put forward many new management concept and management measures, and often neglected study method to obtain decision-making basic. Admittedly, the effective management mode is the important means to deal with emergency, but a good management or decision-making plan always need a lot of decision-making basic, accordingly, the decision maker's decision-making basis is the same important as management measures, it does not allow to be ignored by management, not having the rich decision-making basis, the decision maker's decision is just talk. It is necessary that studying comprehensively many discipline theory knowledge and methods in order to get the scientific decision-making basis. In view of this, the article will be on the basis of previous studies, and chose the emergencies in the Guangdong province as the research objects, and researched comprehensively emergency risk assessment, the contingency ability evaluation and forecasting and warning methods from the statistics, which provided decision maker's more rich and effective decision-making basis. The paper is divided into eight chapters, mainly engaged in several aspects of research as the following:1. Studied the paper's research background, significance, and designed the thesis research technical route, points out the innovations of articles.2. Studied the connotation and characteristics of the emergency, collecting and filing the statistical methods are applied in emergencies risk and contingency ability evaluation and forecasting and warning at present, and introducing and evaluating simply the methods.3. Studied the database construction process of emergency technology, introducing and evaluating the foundation database construction condition of the Guangdong emergency center.4. Studied the emergencies risk assessment process and risk identification methods, designed subjective and objective index combination weighting method based on Amal kanirary method and the G1 method and the the emergencies classification, rating method of the subjective and objective evaluation, and classifing and rating the lightning disaster risk index comparatively in Guangdong province, displaying risk areas regionalization using GIS.5. Studied the contingency ability development process of emergency and constructing process of contingency ability index system, and designed the urban emergency contingency ability development process based on the characteristics of logistic curve and the model of evaluating urban emergency contingency ability development present situation based on logistic membership functions, evaluating fire emergency contingency ability development present situation and the trend in Guangzhou.6. Studied forecasting and warning process of emergency, combining the characteristic of monitoring data, designed the forecasting model base on the short and long term stochastic time series, and forecasted the lightning disaster index in Guangdong province using the model of short-term stochastic time series, integrated risk index evaluation results and the forecast results, evaluated overall lightning disasters in Guangdong province and display regionalization using GIS technology.7. From scientific research and practical Angle, designed the emergency management information system in order to provide abundant research accumulation and practical research tools for emergency work.