Research On Aid-design And Evaluation Problems Of Contingency Plans

In recent years, various types of public emergencies happened frequently.As a result, emergency management has gradually attracted more and more public attention. As an important part of the emergency management, contingency plans management is a basic work of emergency rescue effort. Making contingency plans for emergency management is important guarantee to the successful emergency rescue work through reducing the risk, and carrying out timely and effective implementation of the plans.In order to better respond to possible types of public emergencies, various localities and departments and the various types of production units have done a lot of work on emergency plans management to meet the requirement and unified arrangement of the State Council. So far, the national system of public emergency plan has been basically established. And according to incomplete statistics, the number of China's current levels of various types of plans has reached two million, covering almost all kinds of public emergencies.However, on the whole, there are still some gaps between written plans and implementation in real response to emergency. Thus, there are still many problems need to be solved to improve the efficiency of contingency plans. The main problems are as follows: firstly, lacking of guidance of scientific method to support the historical experience learning when designing and making contingency plans; secondly, lacking of comprehensive evaluation theory and method to evaluate contingency plans.Especially lacking of evaluation method to evaluate the implementation efficiency of the contingency plans after the emergency; thirdly, emphasizing too much expectation on the fully implementation of contingency plans, lacking of consideration on flexibility in the design of contingency plans and related evaluation ideas and method to evaluate effectiveness of contingency plans.To solve these problems, the contents of this research are as follows:Firstly, research on aid-design method for executive solution of contingency plans based on case-based reasoning. This article applied the case-based reasoning method, which belongs to the field of artificial intelligence to aided design of contingency plans execute solution through retrieving the similar cases and their solutions. We built emergency case base, and designed the three-tier storage model based on concept tree, ontology model and element model, and then designed Case retrieval algorithm, and lastly developed a prototype system to verify the practicality of the method. This method can provide plan makers decision support by quickly retrieving the historical experience of similar cases when they design contingency plans execute solution.Secondly, research on comprehensive evaluation of contingency plans. In this study, the evaluation of contingency plans was divided into two types, the pre-evaluation and post-evaluation of the effect (after-effect evaluation). It summarized existing studies on the pre-evaluation at first, and then focused on the evaluation of emergency plans in the after-effects. This paper took hazardous chemicals spill incident as an example and applied multi-level and grey evaluation model method to the evaluation of contingency plans and built the evaluation model of incident of hazardous chemicals spill plans implementation.Thirdly, research on effectiveness evaluation of contingency plans based on resilient perspective. This paper analyzed the reasons why current contingency plans were hard to be fully implemented in the real response from three following perspectives, namely definition of contingency, features of contingency and organization management. Contingency plan should not be just a rigid text file, but should be flexible, so as to meet the increasingly complex emergency situations, and constantly improve its actual availability. On this basis, the paper proposed the definition of flexibility of contingency plans. Then it proposed an thinking framework to evaluate the effectiveness of contingency plans based on resilient view, and it explained that when contingency plan of an organization can't be fully implemented, it can still make organization attain successful response by improving organization resilient potential, which is supported by the 911 case study.Furthermore, a conceptual model was abstracted based on the framework proposed above, and the rationality of the conceptual model was validated theoretically based on implementation theory.Finally, the paper summarized the work has been done above, and proposed the prospect of future work.This research can provide contingency planners and managers of all government levels efficient decision support on execution solution design, and evaluation of contingency plans. Thus it can help improve contingency plans to play more and more active roles in real response to emergency and reduce great loss in the future.