Dynamic Input-output Analysis And Its Application

With a view to the current research background of input-output technique at home and abroad, the research work of this paper which is mainly based on dynamic input-output analysis can be summarized as follows:1. Based on the reference , the author summarizes the production and development of input-output analysis at home and abroad, the current research of input-output technique and the developing trend of making input-output table. Applying input-output analysis to industrial structures and measuring the effect of technique progress to economical increasing are the new development in applied area.2. Dynamic input-output model is well known in economic theory and practice. In this paper, considering object year's conditions, a sensitivity analysis for inverse solutions to dynamic input-output model is performed. The formulations, which compute the changes of national economy sectors' total output during the planning periods when object year's total output vector and each year's final demand vector vary, are given. Due to the changes of the initial conditions and the exogenous variables, the transfer effects of national economy sectors' total output are revealed. The forecasting results indicate that the adoptive formulations are effectual.3. Based on the statistic data from 1990 to 2001, the author analyzes the industrial structures in five provinces of northwest and in Zhejiang and forecast the transformation of the industrial structures in Xinjiang district from 1990 to 2005. The results provide decision supporting and quantitative foundation for adjusting and optimizing industrial structures in this district.