Based On The Dynamic Input-output Analysis Of Macroeconomic Models And Methods

This dissertation is devoted to some models and methods about China macro-economic analysis and forecasting with a view to the current research background of input-output technique in China and in the world, which are mainly based on dynamic input-output analysis. The main work of this paper can be summarized as follows:1. Combining dynamic input-output analysis with methods of multi-objective optimization, a macro-economic forecasting model is established according to Chinese current economic conditions. Subsequently, an algorithm named Step Method is introduced to solve the model, and the choice of satisfactory goal and the definition of maximal allowance value are also discussed. Finally, the development of Chinese macro-economy from 1998 to 2005 is forecasted via the above model and algorithm. The forecasting results indicate that the established model and the adoptive algorithm are effectual.2. The stability of multi-objective dynamic input-output optimization models is studied based on the stability theory of mathematical programming. Further more, the instability of the general multi-objective dynamic input-output optimization model is proved, and the reason of the improve of their stability is analyzed when the multi-objective dynamic input-output model including positive and negative error vectors is resolved by goal programming method.3. The RCS and modified RCS methods for directly updating the value-based Leontief inverse are proposed. And then the implied relationship between them with the conventional RAS method is discussed. Subsequently the RCS and modified RCS methods are compared with the indirect RAS method via an example. It is demonstrated that the methods we introduce, especially the modified RCS method is more practical than the indirect RAS method.4. A more general input-output decomposition model is presented through the combination of input-output technique and structure decomposition analysis according to the development of China macro-economy. Consequently anempirical study about China economic development from 1992 to 1997 is made in such aspects as technology, investment, consumption, trade, etc. 5. Based on the positive eigenvector law, a kind of method used to choose the primary elements of the input coefficients is proposed. And a new way that adjusts the input coefficient in the sense of the optimization of economy is also put -forward, which considers not only the productive vector but also the price vector.