The Research Of The Investment Business Cycle Index

The Business Cycle Index (BCI) can availably reflect the economic cycle fluctuation, and is widely used in the world. For the sake of connecting with the world, our country need to establish our own BCI.The different investor would need different market index from the different angle, so we should establish various different index. Because the index reflecting investment is single, we establish the Beijing Investment Business Cycle Index. Through analyzing capital asserts etc, establish the model. The model can reflect the actuality, predict the future condition very well and provide reference for the government and investor.The purpose of the thesis is to establish a new index that can impersonally and across-the-board reflect the present condition and predict the future truly.The thesis consists of six parts.The first part introduces the meaning that we establish BCI.The second part outlines the BCI history and introduces the present condition in our country. A shortcoming hi the BCIs is that they don't take into account the time difference of different indexes. We resolve the problem.The third part discusses investment cycle fluctuation, the fluctuation character and the factor that cause the fluctuation.The fourth part introduces the problems that can be found hi the item, and put forward the methods to settle the problem.The fifth part introduces the predict theory.The sixth part resolves the problems in the item, find that the gliding average methods is very good at the season adjust because the economic cycle fluctuation is too big. And the forecasting effect of the Exponential Smoothing Estimation Method is very well.In the thesis, I combine the predict theory and the business cycle theory. Throughexamination, confirm the model that predict accurately. Analyse the distinction between the different index , make upped the blemish of relevant business cycle index . At the same time, confirm the weighting coefficient by the statistical method.