Research On The Fluctuation Of China's Cotton Production

Based on the wave theory, this article analyses the periodical charges of China's cotton production since 1978. It also predicts the tendency of the cotton production, discusses the inner reasons and major factors which lead to the fluctuation of China's cotton production, thus provide the related government departments with reference on how to stabilize the cotton production. The article can be divided into 4 parts.In the first part, the author describes the fluctuation of China's cotton production, then analyses the reasons for China's cotton production qualitatively.In the second part, the author applies the wave index to analyzing the fluctuation of China's cotton production, and sums up the law and character of the fluctuation of China's total cotton production. The author also applies one-element linear regression mode to estimating the long-run tendency of China's total cotton production in the following years.In the third part, the author analyses the major factors which fluctuates China's cotton production, including cotton economic policy, scientific progress and natural disasters, and makes a further discussion on the mechanism which leads to the fluctuation of China's cotton production.In the third part, the author proposes some suggestions on making policies to stabilize China's cotton production, these suggestions include: establish a more open cotton production and circulation mechanism, cut down on the cotton plantation area to a moderate degree, adjust the distribution of cotton plantation, commit more money to research on cotton production and so on.