Study On The Decision Theory And Method Of Wartime Military Logistics System

In the Iraq War, US army first adopted exact supply pattern similar to business logistics operation, which attracted a lot of attentions in military academic domains. This opened the prologue of applying modern logistics theory into wartime military logistics, and declared that exact logistics is the development direction of wartime logistics managements. Because our army's study on exact military logistics started before long, and a complete, quantifiable and operational decision theoretical system has not been formed yet, it is important to research on wartime military logistics system (WMLS) and establish its decision theory and method suitable to modern war environments. After introducing concepts of WMLS, analyzing wartime logistical practices and reviewing some relevant researches, this dissertation focused to study on the plans, implements and controls of WMLS of battle level and ground fight by multiple-objective decision method. The main contents are as follow.(1) Analyzed the structure and characteristics of WMLS. Pointed out that its optimizations generally are multi-objective problems, and safety, time and cost are the main decision objectives, among which the cost objective usually is less important than other objectives. This is obviously different from business logistics, so WMLS can't directly adopt the decision theory and method of business logistics.(2) Described the traditional, just-in-time and mixed logistics strategies, and analyzed the relationship between logistics strategies and supply patterns. Pointed out that there is no strategy of WMLS that is absolutely better than others, different strategies are suitable to different battle objects, environments and situations, and the favorable factors and battle goals must be analyzed carefully to determine the military logistics strategy.(3) Established qualitative and quantitive forecast models of logistics demand. Pointed out that the transmission and tracking of demand information is the best way to solve the difficult demand forecast problems of WMLS. According to the concept of cardinal number used in the preparedness of fight materials, put forward a cardinal number method to forecast the total amount of battle demand and its distribution in battlefield before war.(4) Divided the network planning of WMLS into structure design, location layout and location evaluation. According to logistics strategy and relevant standards, discussed the general principles of structure design. According to minimal costobjective and time restrains, established consecutive and discrete models of location layout, and designed exact and heuristic algorithms to solve the models. According to concealment and possibility objectives, constructed location evaluation hierarchical structure and established location evaluation models by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the group decision method.(5) Analyzed important influences of physical distribution speed on WMLS. Pointed out that F. W. Harris's economic order quantity model (EOQ) is not suitable to control inventory of WMLS. Based on minimal time objective, put forward a reorder quantity model (ROP) first, from which deduced series of inventory control models. As results, a new inventory control method aimed to maximize physical distribution speed was established.(6) studied vehicle dispatch problems on the basis of the multi-objective decision method. By means of logarithmic approach, transformed the index of route safety and made it obey plus calculation rule. As a result, the transformed safety index is consistent with that of time and distance. Established routing models of fully and partly loaded vehicles, and respectively designed a decision efficient function, an improved saving algorithm and a genetic algorithm to solve these vehicle dispatch problems. Based on network flow theory, analyzed the problems of vehicle flow allocation, traffic control, and defense arrangement in wartime highway network.(7) Described the main management actions of wartime military logistics centers, analyzed the logic structure and technical realization of decision support system (DDS) of WMLS, and pointed out that the constructions of models and algorithms are the key to develop the DDS.