Missile Proliferation And Control Regimes

The proliferation of missiles, the most important delivery systems for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), poses severe threats to human being as well as international security and thus has become the primary security concern of international community. As the main approach to this issue, the international missile control regimes consist of the core Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and some quasi ones such as International Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (ICOC), Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and Global Control System for Non-Proliferation of Missiles and Missile Technology (GCS). Based on the systematical examination of the contents, working regimes and policy-making procedure of the missile control system, this thesis aims to evaluate its effects and figures out why it does not function well and how it will develop in the future.Compared with current research literatures, this thesis is supposed to make the following breakthroughs.The first one is the establishment of a theoretical framework. Different from the existing literatures on the study of missile control regimes, most of which focus on the technicality, legitimacy and practices of the regimes, this thesis attempts to establish a theoretical framework for evaluating the effects of the missile control regimes by applying the theory of international regimes.The second one is the complete and systematical research of missile proliferation and control. In their study on the missile proliferation, the western scholars usually pay close attention to the "rogue states", "the suppliers of missile" and the third world countries rather than the western countries, which in fact should be responsible for the proliferation of missile. Furthermore, they regard MTCR as the only core regime for missile control and deny the fact that ICOS, PSI and GCS are the important parts of the missile control system. To avoid these biases and prejudices, this thesis tries to make a complete and systematical study of missile proliferation and control.The third breakthrough this thesis achieves is shown in its research findings. Most of the developing countries think that the major institutional drawback of MTCR is its discrimination. The three quasi regimes established for overcoming the drawback of MTCR have caused more serious problems. So, this thesis argues that discrimination is the basis of the current missile control system; if discrimination iseliminated thoroughly, the missile control system will not exist any more.The whole paper, approximately 200,000 words, consists of foreword, text with seven chapters and conclusions. It develops as the following.The foreword firstly raises the question, on the basis of analyzing and evaluating domestic and overseas research status, and introduces the central problems this thesis is going to resolve. It also introduces research approach and the potential findings of the paper.The first chapter is theoretic framework of evaluation function of international regimes, basically the evaluating efficacy of the existing missile control system. On the basis of selecting and ascertaining the concept of international regimes, the paper constructs theoretic framework in terms of efficiency, validity and deficiency of international regimes, and finally analyzes the possibility and realistic significance in the way of applying international regimes to researching missile control.The second chapter which offers the history and status of the missile control proliferation while the third one which mainly analyzes the cause, thus gives background knowledge for the follow chapters. The thesis analyzes the history and status of missile proliferation on both national and regional aspects. On the national aspect, the paper selects the US, Russia and China as researching objects. On the regional aspect, the paper selects South Asia, Middle East and Northeast Asia as researching objects. By the way of analyzing the missile proliferation about the important nations and significant regions, one can basically draw the picture of the missile diffusion. Based on the above research, the paper discusses its cause and the root of the missile proliferation on the theoretic explanation, the American factor and the realistic incentives.The fourth and fifth chapters discuss the core regime and three quasi- regimes of the missile control. MTCR is founded under the initiative of the US. This thesis analyzes how the formation of American missile nonproliferation policy influences the foundation of MTCR, the achieving path of the regime's aim, the national export control under the MTCR framework, the connection between MTCR and China. The three quasi-regimes aim at conquering and surpassing the deficiency of the MTCR. The paper makes research on the quasi-regimes in terms of the background of the regime's founding, the content of the regime control, the policy-making procedure.The sixth and seventh chapters evaluate the performance of the missile control regime. The thesis applies the analytical framework of the international regime theoryand integrates case studies to evaluate efficiency of existing missile control regimes in terms of efficiency, validity and deficiency.Based of the above research, this thesis has reached conclusions as follow.Firstly, discriminatory arrangement is the basis of the existing missile control system.Secondly, the existing missile control system has low efficiency.Thirdly, the existence of the missile proliferation has certain realistic rationality.Fourthly, in the future the direction of missile control is to work out a full-scale missile control treaty regime.