| Real estate is the pillar industry of the national economy and depends mainly on the bank credit, so the credit risks coming from real estate industry menace the sound development of the national economy. Therefore, it has significant theoretic and practical value to probe the principles and the micro-foundation of real estate cycles. Of course, the research on and the practical analysis of the influencing factors of real estate fluctuation has the equal importance.The dissertation includes eight chapters.The first chapter indicates the tenet of the dissertation and surveys the main literatures in the related research field. Furthermore, the chapter emphasizes the researching clues,analytic framework,researching techniques and basic new ideas.The second chapter demonstrates the connotations and the attributes of real estate oscillations. Real estate oscillation is referred to the fluctuation around its long run trend of growth, including seasonal fluctuation and random fluctuation. Based on the microeconomic pricing theory, the mechanism of real estate oscillation indicates that the price of real estate is just the present value of the future rents, which are different with the different local sites and the different resources investment. When the stock-flow model refers real estate not only as the common consumption goods but also as the capital goods, so we can research the price fluctuation of real estate in the three interrelated field of real estate using,maintaining and production market through the theoretic framework.. In another researching framework named asset bubbles theory, we can refer real estate as the fictitious asset to probe the mechanism of price fluctuation through analyzing the basic events such as prospect and speculation. Put option theory refer real estate loan as a put option, Evaluation of put option will stimulating the price of real estate departuring from fundamental value.The third chapter demonstrates the forming mechanism of real estate cycles. The author establishes a stock-flow model in this chapter to deal with real estate cycles: First, irrespective of speculative demand, the essay analyses the shocks which causes the fluctuations of real estate price; Second, The essay expands the basic stock-flow model through adding the speculative demand analysis to probe the fluctuations of real estate price.The fourth chapter deals with the micro-foundation of the mechanism of real estate fluctuation. The essay studies the fluctuation of real estate price in the influences of the interactions of financial accelerator,disastrous myopia,moral hazard and overinvestment.Second, from the behavior of the bank investment.there is phenomenon of "tragedy of the commons" in the investment in real estate industry of banks, so the intrinsic reasons of the fluctuation of real estate price and credit risk are coming from the actions of individual rational and collective rational behaviors. In the periods of the escalation of the price of real estate, all banker expects that real estate industry will have much more capacity to pay back their loans to banks with their asset value increasing when the real estate market become prosperous. On the contrary, when real estate market becomes recession, all bankers decrease their loan to the real estate industry, which cause the accumulation of the credit risk. The fourth,through the research of the implicit insurance of government on real estate industry, the essay finds that the different of the term cost of real estate loan is the main reasons for the inappropriateness of the term structure of real estate banking loan.The fifth chapter probes the influencing factors of Chinese real estate fluctuation. First, the essay reviews the experiences of governing the real estate market of Japan and the United States and etc.The bubbles in the Japan's real estate market give us a lesson that the behaviors of the financial institutions and non-financial firms were distorted by improperly carrying out monetary policy in the periods of the internationalization of Japanese Yen and low inflation. It leads the price of land to keep rising by the huge amount of land purchases of firms, whose purpose is to maintaining their asset value. Therefore, the supply of land become shortage and the firms go away from the transaction market. Under the action of the financial accelerator, the financial situation becomes much more terrible. The lessons of the Thrifts financial crisis told us that the financial liberalization stemming from the deregulation of "Q" rules causes Thrifts to increase the interest rate to attract the deposits. The results of the financial liberalization lead the interest rate of deposits to be higher than that of mortgage loan, which at last leads Thrifts to be unable to make ends meet. For dealing with the high interest rate of deposit, Thrifts had to invest huge amount of funds in the junk bonds and real estate developing items. Second, through viewing real estate at an macroeconomic angle, the essay analyses the influences on real estate cycles of the interactions of government,bank,enterprise and family. Third, the practical research indicates that the fluctuations of real estate price contains several key characteristics such as fluctuation clusters,leptokurtosis,left skewness and asymmetry. Meanwhile, through the co-integration technique and Granger causality test, we find that earth price,banking credit and speculation are three of the most important factors of triggering real estate over-fluctuation.The sixth chapter analyzes the factors which influencing the change trends of real estate. The focus of the analysis is about the impacts on real estate fluctuation of the variation of the population of the cities,the development of citilization and the economic growth. In the last, the essay proves the trend of the development of real estate cycles through the practical test.in the meantime, the essay estamates the real estate elasticity of demand and supply in our country. Study the inner mechanism of real estate fluctuation.The seventh chapter concerns with the policy advisements which how to restrain the over-fluctuation of real estate. The first, from the point of view of the macroeconomic regulation and control, the essay provides some advices for controlling the over-fluctuation of real estate. The second, from the point of view of constructing sound banking credit policy, the bank should establish a set of economic indicators to supervise the real estate market. Furthermore, the essay has also researched that how to merge the indicators into the banking credit rating systems, which will help banks increase their ability to safeguard the financial risks. The third, from the point of view of the health development of the real estate industry, the essay advises that we should construct multilevel supply system of real estate to improve corporate governance and market mechanism.The eighth chapter is about the main innovation of the paper:1.The paper theoretically establishs a stock-flow model,through this model analyze the factor and trend of real estate fluctuations, theoretically and empirically study the forming mechanism of real estate cycles, enriches the theory of real estate economy fluctuations.2.The paper has systematically carried on the theoretical analysis to the mechanism of real estate cycles, through some concepts and methods of Game Theory,proposed and demonstrate the viewpoint of real estate fluctuation of "tragedy of the commons", and the viewpoint of real estate fluctuation of the inappropriateness of the term structure of real estate banking loan, widen the scope of fluctuation. in the meantime, estamate the real estate elasticity of demand and supply in our country. Study the inner mechanism of real estate fluctuation.3.In the counter-measures, for the effective prevention of real estate fluctuation, establish a set of economic indicators to supervise the real estate market. and techniques of risk to consummates the IRB, to confirm the optimal sum of loan and sum of real estate industry, to increases the effectives of collateral loan, to establish the devalue preparation. Furthmore, from the point of view of macroeconomic regulation and the health development of the real estate industry, the essay provides some advices to safeguard the speculating demands of real estate and price over-fluctuation.
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