Research On Air Environmental Impact Of Urbanization Development Strategy In Shandong Province

Urbanization development has played a significant role in promoting the whole human beings'civilization process. At present, urbanization development all over the world still keeps an increasing trend. China and Shandong province are both in an accelerating urbanization development period. Urbanization process promotes the fast development of society and economy; on the other hand, urbanization consumes huge resources and brings negative impact on city eco-environment and then put much threat on the sustainable development of our surviving system directly. The problem of urban air pollution caused by urbanization development had brought a serious threat to the urban environment. The urbanization development is an act of social economy development of country and region strategic policy. In order to slow down or prevent the negative effect on the urban air environment caused by the drawback, invalidation or failure of the strategic policy, we must think of using the Strategic Environmental Assessment method to design the system and estimate it. China needs development, while development needs strategy. Except the developing strategy, the sustainability is also needed. The Strategic Environmental Assessment is one of the measurements to make sure the development is sustainable. Studying the urbanization strategy influence on the air environment not only correspond to the Decree of the State Council(NO.559) signed by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, that is correspond to urban construction and development plan should undertake Environmental Impact Assessment, but also correspond to the strategy plan that Shandong economy must develops sustainably.The thesis mainly takes the Environmental Impact Assessment methods to study the inner relationship between the urbanization development and atmosphere quality and the urbanization development impact on the atmosphere quality in the future planning year. That is on the basis of Environmental Impact Identification, Environmental Actuality Assessment, Environmental Impact Prediction and Environmental Impact Assessment model. On the consideration of that this thesis is based on the single-factor assessment of atmospheric environment impact, and there is no analysis of Environmental Impact Identification. Through the retrospective evaluation, the interaction relationship between the urbanization development and atmosphere quality was analyzed. Furthermore, the coupling analysis of the urbanization and the emissions of the industry waste gas were examined based on the analysis of the contemporary industrialization level. Through analyzing forecast (urbanization forecast, energy forecast, emissions of major air pollution factors forecast) and bearing capacity, the fast-speed urbanization rate and the requirement of the bearing capacity of atmosphere is examined. Lastly, the system of evaluation and comprehensive evaluation model of the urbanization impact on the air environment was biult. The three main innovation points of this essay are raised, that are three principles that the new coupling curve of the urbanization and air environment should obey; the evaluation system of urbanization impact on the atmosphere in Shandong based on the PSR balanced scorecard is built; on the basis of the entropy model of urban environment, the entropy model of the urban air environment is built and modified; optimized combination model of the energy demand forecast is raised.The main contents are the following:On the aspect of the retrospective evaluate the urbanization impact on the air environment, I retrospectively analyzed the air environment impact of urbanization in 17 cities in Shandong province by qualitative analysis, the entropy model of the urban air environment and the fuzzy mathematics comprehensive judgment approaches is carried out. The interactive relationship between urbanization development and air quality change in Shandong is also analyzed. The research results show that:along with the accelerating of urbanization rate, the atmosphere shows a trend of becoming better and there is a positive correlation between them. Through retrospectively evaluating the urbanization impact on the air environment, the entropy change of pollution factors was exactly the same with the result of the qualitative analysis. The result of the urban atmosphere entropy shows that the cities' atmosphere quality improved with the accelerating urbanization rate, and they show a positive correlation. The model of the urban atmosphere entropy not only solved the comprehensive evaluation of all indicators of the atmosphere quality which can not solved by the qualitative analysis method, but also analyzed the urbanization process impact on the atmosphere quality by analyzing the absolute entropy value.On the aspect of interaction relationship between the urbanization, industrialization and atmospheric environment, Chenery respectively mode, Kuznets mode, Syrquin and Chenery mode and method of Huffman coefficient was applied in Shandong province to present industrialization development research. The result shows that Shandong has entered the stage of late middle industrialization and the industrialization is gradually to later stage. The urbanization and industrialization of coupling mechanism analysis and coordination is used in order to make clear the interactive relationship between them. The urbanization and the industrialization coupling degree have entered the antagonistic period. There are obvious differences in the time of coupling, but shows a overall coordination after the ascendant trend stage. When the industrialization and urbanization is in antagonistic period, urbanization development accelerates and a lot of money and resources is necessary and then bring a certain impact to the ecological environment. Through urbanization and atmospheric environment interactive coupling mechanism and the regularity study in Shandong, the coupling equation curve is a "double exponential curve" generally after the deterioration of the improved following trends. For urbanization and atmospheric environment, puts forward the new coupling coupling curve should follow the three principles of the curve, i.e. the flattening principle, bring forward principle and speed lose principle. According to the management cost and atmospheric environmental degradation degree evaluation index, four matrix model and dual model corresponding countermeasures was put forward. low manage cost and low harm type control using flat+ advance principle, high manage cost and low harm type using control flatting principle, high manage cost and high harm type control using flat+ advance principle, Low manage cost and high damage type control using drop principle.Urbanization and industrial emissions coupling empirical studies in Shandong show that neither coupling "double exponential curve", nor 2 times curve equation, but four equations. The curve shows with the pace of urbanization in Shandong province, atmospheric quality is getting better. Industrial SO2, industrial soot, dust emissions and urbanization, industrial waste has their own respective coupling curve; their relationship is in the break-in stage. But the first one fluctuates a lot; the latter two was much more stable. In combination of matrix model, countermeasures, flat+ treatment principle in advance, are put forward for industrial SO2 emissions, Fast drop principle is used for soot and dust emissions.In the urbanized development—energy supply requirement—air pollutant emission load forecast research aspect, the Time Series method, Grey forecast law and Uncitral Model law are applied to forecast the future planning year's urbanization rate of Shandong Province, with the low, middle and high three scenarios are projected. Analyzing the saving index Shandong's energy and sulfur dioxide in the recent ten years with saving index model indicates that Shandong Province's energy eficiency is lower than the national average level, but the sulfur dioxide index which is better than the national average level is decreasing year by year. New energy development in Shandong Province is increasing, but compared with the world average level there is still a long way to go. The energy demand is predicted using scenario analysis (general situation) and the LEAP model. The results showed that annual growth rate of energy consumption, elasticity of energy consumption and energy intensity has been greatly improved compared to 2008; energy saving has some achievements but the fact that economic development depends on energy consumption has not changed. Environmental load method was used in the forecast for energy demand (ideal scenario) of future planning year. To compare forecast results of the ideal scenario and the common scenarios, it is found common scenarios cannot guarantee energy consumption to be the optimal result when GDP under the same growth rate, the gap is getting large. Combine common scenario and the ideal scenario would optimize the programs, and the optimal scenario is the best situation. After calculation, nergy demand of the optimal scenarios is much smaller than normal energy demand scenarios. But compared to the ideal scenario energy consumption, there are still large gaps. Therefore, in the short term, Shandong Province is difficult to change the fact that energy consumption is not efficient. Using the energy demand forecasting result in the future planning year in Shandong province, the related mathematical model is used to carry on the forecast of the main air pollutant emissions. Finally, the A-P method is applied to analyze the SO2 bearing capacity in Shandong province. The research had indicated that in each planning year SO2 emissions was smaller than the biggest emission permissions. It shows that along with the urbanization developmental strategy's implementation in Shandong province, the SO2 emissions have not surpassed the atmospheric environment capacity. Atmospheric environment bearing capacity can support the urbanization developmental strategy in Shandong Province.In terms of researches to construct Shandong urbanized development effect on Atmospheric Environment Impact Assessment based on PSR balanced scorecard and Comprehensive evaluation model, this thesis discussed the feasibility of using PSR balanced scorecard to construct environment impact indicator system firstly. Balanced scorecard and PSR model has the same character of system, causality and sustainability. Balanced scorecard also has two key characters of environment indicator system design, that is, balance and dynamic. If we combine the advantage of balanced scorecard and PSR model, it is feasible to construct environment impact indicator system using scorecard based on PSR. According to the four dimensions of balanced scorecard, we put the customer factor on top, and construct urbanization effects on the atmospheric environment index system. Included are 4 first-level indicators,7 second-level indicators, and 65 third-level indicators. With respect to the indicator system, urbanization atmospheric security assessment model, urbanization atmospheric coordination assessment model and urbanization atmospheric sustainable development assessment model was set up respectively.Lastly, the relationship of the urbanization development impact on the atmosphere environment is examined by combining the actual urbanization in Shandong. According to the research conclusion, some suggestions and policies on air environment protection are proposed.