Research On Real Estate Cycle And Macroeconomic Regulation

Whether at home or abroad, real estate development process in motion and there are periodic fluctuations in the objective cycle phenomenon. But the real estate market volatility will affect the normal operation of the national economy, so need to improve the real estate macro control system.This article embarks from the international angle of view's macroscopic stratification plane, uses the synthetic study and the analytical study unifies, the short-term research and the long-term research unifies, the measurement economy and the statistical method, the comparison research technique and so on, conducts the deep research to the real estate cycle and the regulative policy.First, this article uses panel data model, the main countries and regions of the main factors affecting the real estate cycle analysis, and summarizes the real estate cycle in the regulation of various countries with regard to the experience gained and lessons learned. Second, this paper, principal component analysis conducted on the mainland real estate cycle, factor analysis, and fitting the mainland real estate cycle index. Recognize the objective existence of mainland real estate cycle, one needs to answer in real property in the emergence and formation of the internal mechanism of cyclical fluctuations. Second, further analysis of the real estate cycle factors and decisive force. Thirdly, the VAR model using these factors on the price effect and the pulse generated by analysis of variance contribution, to deepen our understanding of the real estate cycle factors in the mainland's understanding of academic research to make up for domestic-related weaknesses. Fourth, this use of SVAR models, prices and land on the mainland was the relationship between Granger causality test. Paper examines the continent between land and housing prices, in order to deny pioneering the "original sin of government" point of view.Since the 90s of the 20th century, the mainland real estate cycle generally consists of two stages of development:1990-1997 first-year real estate cycle fluctuations (of the transition period) and the second time since 1998 the real estate cycle (housing system reform to date). With the process of in-depth real estate market, real estate supply and demand issues such as conflicts and continue to highlight the real estate bubble, while the government was against the real estate market cycle, macro-economic control.The results show that the mainland needs to control the real estate industry, real estate market norms and housing security system of these three areas, adjust the government's administrative intervention, improve the real estate market structure and resource allocation mechanisms can promote the health of the mainland property market development.