Real Estate Cycle Fluctuation Research

Since China implemented the housing system reform in 1998,the real estate sector has developed into a pillar industry of the national economy.However,with the continuous slowdown of China's economy,there appeared a new round of upswing in volume and price in China's real estate market from 2015 to 2016,which is another peak following the macro-control of real estate in 2010.What's the reason of the new round of rising cycle in Real estate market?The level of real estate development depends on the level of economic development in a country or region,which in turn affects the economic development of that country or region.In the long run,what is the relationship between the real estate cycle and the macroeconomic cycle?In this paper,IT explore the following three problems with inherent logic from three aspects,the real estate supply,demand and macro-control:(1)What exactly led to the cyclical fluctuations in the real estate economy?(2)Since the volatility of the real estate cycle is difficult to avoid,how to judge the future prosperity of the real estate industry?So that we can develop appropriate counter-cyclical control policies to prevent the "bubble" growth in real estate economy.In order to discuss the above problems,this paper first systematically reviews the domestic and foreign literature on the interactive mechanism of the real estate cycle and the macroeconomic cycle,as well as the real estate boom index.Then,according to the monthly data of real estate market and macroeconomic fundamentals from 2000 to 2016,this paper describes the periodic operating characteristics of China's real estate market.And further analyzes the factors that affect the real estate cycle in our country from the aspects of investment in real estate development,real estate construction,real estate sales,Personal purchase loans and currency supply.Different from previous researches on the volatility of real estate cycle,this paper analyzes the interaction mechanism between real estate cycle and macroeconomic cycle in China based on the comprehensive consideration of all relevant indexes of real estate industry and macroeconomic fundamentals.In the analysis of the relationship between China's real estate cycle and macroeconomic cycle,it considers the impact of the lag effect between indicators,and divide it into advanced,consistent and lagging indicators by time difference correlation analysis method,And thus build advanced,consistent and lagged composite index of the real estate cycle fluctuations to Study the future boom trend of China's real estate market and re-explore the correlation between China's real estate cycle and macroeconomic cycle.According to the empirical analysis of the impact factors of commercial housing sales price,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The growth rate of the sales price of commercial buildings is affected by the level of the past three phases.The change of the growth rate of commercial housing prices by 1%will lead to a 0.36 percentage point increase in the growth rate of the sales prices of commercial buildings in the future,leading to the sales prices of commercial buildings in the next two and three phases The growth rate reversed by 0.08 and 0.02 percentage points respectively;(2)The national housing sentiment index rose 1 percentage point year-on-year,which will lead to an increase of 0.25 percentage point in the growth rate of commercial housing sales over the same period.The generating capacity will increase by 1 percentage point year-on-year and the growth rate of commercial housing sales over the same period by 0.05 percentage points;(3)The 1%increase in the completion of real estate investment over the same period of last year will result in a 0.17 percentage point change in the growth rate of the sales price of commercial buildings in the next three phases.By building a real estate boom index,we find that the leading composite index of China's real estate boom holds a leading trend of about 5 months compared with the consistent composite index,the correlation coefficient of time difference is about 0.70,and the first characteristic is relatively stable,which can be used as the index to judge the real estate boom forecast in China.In this paper,through the study of real estate cycle fluctuations and the construction of real estate climate index,to a certain extent,can provide some basis for the relevant departments to formulate regulatory measures,but also for developers to invest as well as consumer purchase decision-making advice,to protect our real estate market The healthy and coordinated development.