On The Disparity Of Goal And The Route To Advance For Making Overall Economic Development Of Urban And Rural Areas Of Chongqing City

After 30 years of reform & opening up, China has maintained a high economic developing rate and the income per capita of residents has increased greatly. But the dual economic of urban and rural become increasingly prominent. The increasing rate of urbanization is too slow, and the income gap of urban and rural increase continuously. The dual economic structure become threatening the sustain development of the whole economic. As the old industrial base of west China, the situation of dual economic structure of Chongqing City is worse than the country's. Be the only municipalities of west China, the economic center of Yangtze River & economic growth pole and as the Comprehensive Reform of the State Urban and Rural Development Experimental Zone, Chongqing City shoulder the hope of the government in the reform to make overall development of urban and rural areas. If Chongqing City can make great breakthroughs or advances in making overall development of urban and rural areas, it will provide valuable experiences and demonstrations for the whole country. Its meaningful results benefit not only the local Chongqing itself, but the global country. In this context and based on previous research, this dissertation in the perspective of breaking through the urban-rural dual economic structure, make a research on locating the goal and the gap between the goal and reality for Chongqing to make overall development of urban and rural areas, and the route and strategies for Chonqing to advance for the overall development of urban and rural areas.1. The main contentsThe main contents of the dissertation are:①Literature review and comment. The results of previous research are analyzed and summarized, the relevant theory on Making Overall Economic Development of Urban and Rural Areas(MOEDURA) are sorted out, and with this work be the logical starting point for theoretical and empirical study of the dissertation.②The normative and positive studies on the gap of the goals of MOEDURA. Based on the international comparison of economic development of countries in the world, the author builds up the objective criterions and empirical indicators for MOEDURA, and makes an empirical study on China.③Analysis on MOEDURA status, trends and related affecting factors of Chongqing City. With the benchmark of the whole nation, make an assessment on the status and the deviation of the goal of MOEDURA on Chongqing. Make an forecast on the development trend on MOEDURA, and an empirical analysis on the elements that affecting the dual economic structure.④Urban and rural dual economic structure modeling and analysis. Build the dual structure economic model that consistent with the reality situation of China and Chongqing, make a mathematical economics analysis on the development of urban and rural dual economic, and deduce the empirical model from the theoretical model, using the dynamic panel data methods make an empirical study on the model, to lay the theoretical basis for breaking the urban-rural dual economic structure and getting the empirical foundation for it.⑤On the routes for pushing the MOEDURA of Chongqing. Promote the theoretical orientation for the long-term goals and advancing strategy for Chongqing MOEDURA, make an empirical analysis on the key factors that affecting the advancing of MOEDURA, and propose the suggestions for Chongqing's MOEDURA.2 The main conclusions①Most of the existing evaluation systems of MOEDURA are based on the index system of multi-level approach, using the AHP or principle component or factors analysis methods. Most of those methods are difficult to obtain sufficient data supporting. Even when getting enough data supporting, with the data reduction methods of principle component or factors analysis, it will actually degenerate into the comprehensive evaluation of the main indicators. Thus, using two key indicators, urbanization and the intensity of the urban-rural dual economic structure, which comply with the world's major countries' income levels and stages of economic development, will be better than the index system of multi-level approach. And this method will usually get sufficient data support for forecast, evaluation an econometrics analysis.②The empirical results show that the intensity of China's urban-rural dual economic structure is not the highest in the world, but it is one of the highest. China's urbanization and the intensity of the dual economic structure has been predicted by 2020, compared by the corresponding year's target value of MOEDURA, China's urban and rural co-ordination development objectives in the next decade will make some progress, but fail to meet the model specifications target.③Since Chongqing became a municipality, the urbanization rate was significantly higher than the national average, if she can maintain the 2 percent growth rate of urbanization in recent years, Chongqing will be able to meet the model specifications target of urbanization level in the next decade. But the urban-rural dual economic structure in Chongqing is stronger than the national average. The average labor productivity in the non-agricultural sector is 7 times more than the agricultural sector. If Chongqing does not change the existing economic structure, the intensity of the dual economic will continue to rise over the next decade, far more than the MOEDURA model specification target.(4)The urban-biased fiscal policy, the urban-rural per labor fixed assets investment gap, and the degree of urban-rural markets price gap between industrial and agricultural products have significant dynamic effects on Chongqing's intensity of dual economic structure. Although the gap between non-agricultural and agricultural loans, is the greatest input gap of all elements, the variable in the empirical analysis has not become a significant factor, implicates that because the absent of formal financial system's financial support in rural areas, loans from the formal financial system do not embody the real role of agricultural funds on agricultural production, thus it pointed out the direction for the financial system reform.⑤Analysis of static dual economic structure model showed that, for a sufficiently long period of time with the maintenance of free flow of factors and the market fully competitive, it will be able to meet the goal of the two departments to produce in the pursuit of maximum efficiency while achieving a balanced and effective transfer of labor. But the prerequisite are the free flow of rural labor, urban-rural labor equality, no discrimination in employment, and the factors and product markets are sufficiently competitive.⑥Analysis of dynamic model of the dual economic structure supports the theoretical hypothesis of a vicious circle that urban-rural dual economic structure continues to solidify:'Path dependence of production system→small-scale family production→extensive agricultural production→urban-rural income gap→transfer of labor force→widening gap between urban and rural labor quality-> gap of comparative labor productivity between urban and rural areas→investment gap between rural and urban factors→extensive agricultural production→……. To break this vicious circle, rate of accumulation of factors of production in rural sector must be greater than the depreciation rate and the discount rate of time, which should increase the rural sector physical capital, human capital investment, and increase the intensity of industry nurturing agriculture.⑦The author deduce a dynamic econometric model of urban-rural income gap from the dynamic mathematical dual economic structure model, with the methods of dynamic panel data fixed effects, random effects and generalized method of moment estimation, make an empirical analysis on the impact of factors of the income gap between urban and rural areas. The results showed that urban investment differences in physical capital and human capital are important factors in urban-rural income gap, but the variables which reflect the extent of urban-rural dual structure of employment is not statistically significant, that's, the higher proportion of labor in primary industry does not means a significantly higher urban-rural income gap. And the differences between urban and rural economic growth, had significant impact on income gap between urban and rural areas.⑧Different levels of the strategic goals on MOEDURA are proposed, and the mathematical economic analysis are made, the results show that the highest long-term goal of MOEDURA should be the production factors of urban and rural have exactly the same rate of return, and the complete elimination of dual economic structure. However, due to the rigidity of various aspects of urban and rural economic constraints, the short-term goal should be to make the urban and rural income gap at a reasonable and tolerable range while realize urban and rural economic development. And we should enhance the preferences of the government's decision-making on reducing the urban-rural income gap. Improve the bargaining power of interest groups in rural sector, and their interests'expression mechanism. Raise the community's awareness of the harm caused by dual economic structure; make all interest groups to reach a consensus on dealing with urban -rural income gap and through the regulator of government to implement the regulation.⑨Base on the empirical analysis of mobility and transfer of Chongqing's rural labors, the human capital and physical capital investment gap between urban and rural areas, the author propose suggestion for MOEDURA of Chongqing form four aspects:Firstly, pushing up the rural labor transfer and promote the process of urbanization. Secondly, making over all development of urban and rural education, reduce the urban-rural gap in education levels. Thirdly, narrow the physical capita investment gap between urban and rural areas. Stick to the comprehensive co-ordination oriented path to promote urban and rural development.3 Innovations①Propose urban and rural economic development objectives norms based on the comparison of international experience, and improve the existing methods of evaluation of MOEDURA. Make empirical assessments on the status and the deviation of the goal of MOEDURA on China and Chongqing.②Construct models of urban-rural dual economic structure in line with China and Chongqing's reality, make systematically mathematical economics analysis on rural labor mobility, the impact of minimum wage, two-sector economic growth and urban and rural income gap, the critical impact variables of urban-rural dual economic structure. Improve empirical models of the urban-rural income disparity. Using larger sample data and better econometric estimation methods get higher explanatory power results than the existing research.③Make theoretical analysis on different levels of the strategic goals on MOEDURA for Chongqing. Promote the strategies path of coordinated development of urban and rural economic for Chongqing. Promote policies and recommendations for pushing up the MOEDURA for Chongqing that are closely comply with its reality.