Research On Several Problems In Decision Making Pattern Of Momentous Project

Facing critical problems in economy, society and science and technology, human beings usually gives some ideas of developing momentous project and constructs it to promote all-round development in economy, society and science and technology through making a breakthrough at these problems. Momentous project management is a specialized form of management concerned with the application in momentous project, including activities such as decision making, planning, organizing, conduct, coordination and control. The decision making on momentous project is increasingly difficult owing to complexity in momentous project, dynamic characteristics and uncertainty in situation, imperfection in decision information, and the unbounded rationality of decision makers. Therefore, research on decision making theory and method of momentous project is one of important and difficult parts in the domain of momentous project management.The researches on decision making of momentous project mainly focus on operation mechanism of decision making, experts consulting mechanism, public participation mechanism. There are, however, no enough and systematized researches on the decision making of momentous project including selection of demonstration expert, mechanism design of feasibility demonstration, risk assessment and early-warning mechanism. Therefore, based on the analysis on decision making characteristics and process of momentous project, the decision making pattern of momentous project was divided into two levels including decision mechanism and decision techniques in this dissertation, in which several critical problems including decision making mechanism, selection of demonstration expert, multiple meta-thought model and interactive integration of multiple meta-values and risk assessment model and risk early-warning mechanism were studied. The detailed contents and innovative points are given as follows.(1) Study on properties and process of decision making of momentous project. The properties of momentous project were analyzed and a conceptual model was developed. The decision making and its properties were analyzed. Based on complex system theory, the decision making process of momentous project with properties of integration of multiple meta-values of decision-making, dynamic evolvement, emergence, and self similarity was analyzed. The properties of decision making process of momentous project were investigated empirically with the case of Yangtze River Three Gorges Project in China.(2) Analysis on decision making mechanism for momentous project. Three typical cases of momentous projects were selected in China and other countries, and failures on ideological level, mechanism construction, decision making process and technique level in the process of decision making on these momentous projects were analyzed. On the basis of above work, some decision making mechanisms including guarantee system in law and regulation, feasibility demonstration system, system of risk assessment and risk early-warning, selection system of demonstration expert were suggested, which form framework for the decision making pattern of momentous project.(3) The selection of demonstration expert for momentous project. The optimizational combination of experts is one of key problems before making the feasibility study for the momentous project. The selection process of demonstration expert for momentous project was analyzed and a selection flow was suggested. According to the demands of momentous project demonstration, a hierarchy assessment model of demonstration expert of momentous project was proposed. A mathematic model of choosing demonstration experts for the momentous project and simple genetic algorithm and adaptive genetic algorithm were developed. A numerical example was examined to demonstrate the validity and applicability of developed model and algorithm. Furthermore, based on analysis on operator controlling parameters'influence on the developed algorithm, reasonable value ranges of the control parameters were suggested to solve such problem.(4) The construction of multiple meta-thought model and interactive integration of multiple meta-values of momentous project. Multiple meta-values of momentous project including economic value, social value, science and technology value and others were analyzed. A hierarchy model and a three-dimensional model of multiple meta-thought dimensions were developed. The process of decision making on momentous project was decomposed into two basic levels including special level and comprehensive level. A two-level interaction and integration flow model for multiple meta-values was proposed. Group consensus on multiple meta-values was analyzed.(5) The risk assessment model and risk early-warning mechanism for momentous project. A general index system for risk assessment for momentous project was presented. Integrating group analytic hierarchy process and grey system theory, a risk assessment method was suggested. Two-level interactive mechanism of risk early-warning including special level and comprehensive level was suggested for momentous project. On the basis of above work, demonstration base of urban recyclable minerals in China, as a sort of typical momentous project, was analyzed to develop a personalized hierarchical structure model of evaluation index system for risk assessment. Finally, a case of demonstration base of urban recyclable minerals from Anhui province in China was examined to illustrate the validity and applicability of the developed model and approach.This dissertation focuses on the problem of decision making pattern of momentous project. Several decision making mechanisms were suggested. The models and solving methods for corresponding several critic problems were developed. The research results presented above advance new thinking routs for scientific and reasonable decision making of momentous project.