Study On Structural Optimization Of Energy Consumption In Jiangsu Based On Environmental Restraint

By analyzing the features of energy, economy and environment in Jiangsu province as well as a large sum of practical materials, this dissertation concludes that the highly developing economy in Jiangsu province largely relies on the energy investment at the present stage. It studies the national and provincial bounded targets of energy saving and pollution discharge reduction and the main pollutants emission reduction in order to reinforce the comprehensive decision-making systems on energy, environment and economy and realize the sustainable development target of Jiangsu economic society.Firstly, applying theoretical, comparative and scene analysis and qualitative and quantitative combining method, it makes horizontal and vertical comparison and analysis on the energy consumption, energy utilization and energy intensity in 13 cities and 12 industries of Jiangsu province. By means of economic growth convergence analysis, it analyzes theσconvergence and absolute and conditionalβconvergence of energy efficiency in cities of Jiangsu province, and thereby concludes that the variation factor of energy consumption in the middle area is higher than that in the south and north of Jiangsu province, but the differences between these areas are gradually decreasing and tend to be stable, and the change of regional energy efficiency is in contrast with the initial energy efficiency, i.e., the efficiency increasing in the inefficient area is even faster than that in the efficient area, which will finally result in the same level energy efficiency in both kinds of areas.Secondly, borrowing ideas from research on coordination at home and abroad, it designs an evaluation system for coordination degree of economy, energy and environment. Combining with Principal Components Analysis and Delphi Method, it analyzes the coordination of economic system, energy system and environmental system in Jiangsu province, including the analysis of an individual system, between two systems and by synthesis and concludes that the coordination degree in most areas and industries is in a comparatively inharmonious state or even worse.Based on the theory of co integration, this dissertation makes a relativity analysis between indexes of economic system and energy system, then establishes the multi-objective decision-making model which takes the minimum of total energy consumption and the investment on pollution disposal in different areas as the objective function and the economic growth, pollutants emission and energy investment as the constrained function. The model simulates the optimized energy structures for 15 kinds of hypothetical scenarios in different economic and environmental conditions, forecasts the energy consumption of per GDP in 2010 and the energy structure states of cities in Jiangsu province in 2020 with regression analysis method, and simultaneously proposes related policy suggestions pointing against the conclusions.