Study On The Investment Decision-making Of Technological Innovation In Enterprise Under Fuzzy Environment

In the process of technological innovation, traditional discounted cash flow techniques are not fit for investment decision-making, for enterprises are facing the uncertainty of technical and market, the investment cost is (partially or completely) irreversible, so corporate decision-making must be flexible. And technology innovation has developed a new feature which need a scientific and reasonable management approach, while the real option provides a convenient. It is not only a useful attempt to establish a framework of technology innovation management with the new option feature and theory, but also reasonable and feasible. Moreover, social environment which real option pricing model relied on is uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. So the study of fuzzy real option pricing theory provide a new theoretical basis and also being a useful and necessary complement to traditional real option pricing methods. Therefore, this study analysis fuzzy real option of Enterprise Technology Innovation Investment Decision has certain theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, we take the Enterprise Technology Innovation Investment Decision under fuzzy environment as research subject, use fuzzy theory, game theory, mathematical optimization and real options methods to construct a model, discuss the effect of those model on Investment Decision, aim to deeply discuss the dimension structure and decision model of Enterprise Technology Innovation Investment Decision.The paper is organized as follows:①Introduction. Discuss the significance of research and the basic ideas and framework.②Review the development and evaluation of the real options theory and fuzzy theory.③Study on the valuation model of technological innovation under fuzzy environment.④Study on the real option pricing model of technological innovation under fuzzy environment.⑤Study on the model of multi-stage decision of technology innovation based on dynamic programming.⑥Study on the option game of technological innovation investment decision under fuzzy environment.⑦Study on fuzzy real option of contractual strategic alliance of technology innovation.⑧Conclusion.This paper studies the enterprise technology innovation investment decision model under fuzzy environment based on introducing the background and significance, the basic idea and framework, the features and innovations, and related theory, then the main innovations in this paper is described as following: ①Using the fuzzy theory, this paper analyzes the uncertainty, ambiguity, irreversibility of the enterprise technology innovation investment, establishing the value assessment model under fuzzy environment, from the modeling, the value of investment opportunity that also is named the option value is affected by a number of factors, because the model considers the actual situations which is limited by the subjective and objective conditions in fuzzy environment(such as war, bankruptcy, the loss of enterprise's history data, etc.), this paper discusses the issue in a more general context and also comes to the net present value formula of the investment opportunities based on fuzzy environment, this formula is an important basis for project evaluation under fuzzy environment.②This paper resolves the problem of model parameters which couldn't be accurately predicted due to the ambiguity of the enterprise technology innovation investment, uses the trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to the expected future income and investment cost, and establishes fuzzy real option pricing models of single and compound options.③This paper establishes the multi-stage decision model of the enterprise technology innovation investment based on dynamic programming under fuzzy environment, the decision-maker analyzes the effect of uncertainty on the management flexibility values of the enterprise technology innovation investment while there were three options (continue, improve, abandon) at every stage.④Using the real option theory, this paper studies the flexibility option value model of the enterprise technology innovation contractual alliances under fuzzy environment,and analyzes tight and relaxed management modes under fuzzy environment. The results show that the flexibility option value model of the enterprise technology innovation contractual alliances is an important alliance pricing means under fuzzy environment, if the volatility of related random variables or uncertainty was larger in a certain range, we should choose the more flexible relaxed management modes, and otherwise we should choose the tight management modes. Through analyzing fuzzy real option of contractual strategic alliance of technology innovation, we guarantee the accuracy and rationality of the price, duty and contract terms.⑤We analysis enterprise technology innovation investment decision-making countermeasures or asymmetrical duopoly model and obtain fuzzy expressions of Investment Values of followers and leaders and their threshold Value under fuzzy environment with sunk cost set as a trapezoidal fuzzy number. Through numerical analysis, we found that there is a best investment strategy under fuzzy environment.