| Housing finance policies (HFP) has been one of the most important policy issues for Chinese government nowadays, not only because the current housing finance system in China has been far behind the needs of economic development, but also because of one of the key aims of Chinese government which is realizing the sustained, stable and coordinated development of housing market, financial market, and macro economy. In this dissertation, the author analyzed the mechanism for the effect of HFP on housing market in urban China from the aspects of theoretics and empiricism.An intervention framework of HFP in China was firstly illustrated based on the explanation of the relationships among HFP, macrofinance policies (monetary policy), housing market, and macro economy. Then a theoretical framework of the effect of HFP on housing market was constructed, coming with further empirical tests which employed several econometrics models. Finally the author analyzed the interaction between decision making of home loans by commercial banks and the cyclicity of housing market under the financial accelerator hypothesis, and estimated the trend of housing financial market in China from the aspect of home loans amount in the coming 40 years, which is helpful for understanding the HFP choice in the future.The empirical study concludes in the following findings.(1) It's a better choice to use mortgage rate rather than controlling loans amount to intervene housing market, especially when facing housing price bubble or housing market busts. It would prick up the fluctuation of housing market or even encumber macro economy, if government could not tune loans amount at right timing and moderation.(2) At the current phase of the housing market in urban China, different tools of HFP have different impacts on housing market, even if they come from the same direction of HFP. Tightening home loans amount leads to decline both in housing price and transaction volume, while increasing mortgage rate, which can also be taken as tight HFP, will restrain housing price but realize a rebound in transaction volume.(3) Different with the immediate impact of mortgage rate on housing price in each city, housing development loan brings positive effect after the construction cycle; the extent of housing development loan amount's effect varies across cities, which depends on the characteristics of local housing market.(4) Influence of HFP is bigger on the city with larger deviation of actual housing price from fundamental value or with higher price-to-rent ratio.(5) It's anticipated that housing financial market will stay in ascending phase before 2020 in urban China, which results large potential of home loans in the future, especially residential mortgage amount.Finally, some policy suggestions are derived from above findings. The most important implication is that HFP should turn to follow a"price-oriented"mechanism in the future, which means policy makers should regards mortgage rate as a dominant HFP tool. Moreover, government should control market rate of interest mainly by adjusting the benchmark interest instead of setting guidance on lending rates. In order to make HFP more effective in the short-term, government could weaken the diversity across cities when adjusting residential mortgage amount or mortgage rate, but should provide different city with different housing development loan intensity. For the sake of reducing the risk of home loans, government should not only encourage the innovations on housing financial tools and the development of mortgage backed securities market, but also adopt some proper methods, such as setting reserves against residential mortgage and letting commercial banks set strict exit terms to borrowers.
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