Research On Rationalization Of Risk Allocation In Traffic Infrastructure Project Based On PPP Model

In recent years, with the fast development of Chinese economy, the demand for power, roads, telecommunications and other infrastructure has risen sharply. As an innovative financing mode, Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) can attract capital and technology of private agency effetely, and which is developed at a very rapid rate in the recent decade. However, the characters of PPP project such as uniqueness, long-term and the incompleteness of the contract make it facing more risks than ever before, furthermore, the process of risk allocation becomes even more complex for the reason of the difference of objection among each participant. Therefore, how to allocate the risks rationally among the participant, how to achieve the objection of Value for Money of PPP model and make the PPP implemented successfully have become especially important, which has also become the difficult and hot spots in PPP fields. This paper takes the PPP project as research object and focus on a series of problems about risk allocation.Firstly, starting with the feasibility and utility of PPP model, the paper reviewed the research situation of risk allocation of PPP model at home and abroad in terms of analyses of many references; then further combed the connotation, characteristic and application development of PPP, which lay the theoretic foundation for an in-depth insight into PPP model and the further research of risk allocation.Secondly, based on the grounded theory research method, the paper summed up 46 risk factors in china traffic PPP project; a three stage allocate proceeding was designed based on the thought of negotiation, and then a risk allocation framework is summarized on the base of win-win relationship. The framework both considerate the development level of PPP at home and abroad and the features of traffic project, which can provide an standard and reference for future risk allocation in PPP traffic projects.Thirdly, starting with the cooperative of participant and the uncertainty of the risk factors, the paper constructed an optimal allocation proportion decision model based on the stochastic cooperative game theory. The model takes the risk preference coefficient as the reflection of the willingness of the participant, makes the weight of Shapley value in standard cooperation game as the decision variable. It can not only achieve the objection to maximize the project revenue, but also satisfied the objection of participant by the way of transfer the risk to the less risk avoidance part. The analysis of numerical case showed that the optimal allocation proportion decided by this model has declined the total risk of project.At last, form the subject of risk allocation, the paper studied the three major topics in PPP project, which are government guarantee, tariff adjustment and concession adjustment. An project inflow model is constructed based on government traffic guarantee strategy, traffic volume ceiling strategy and government subside cap strategy, and then the corresponding relation between government guarantee and risk allocation proportion is established by the way of Monte-Carlo random simulation; an tariff adjustment model is constructed based on adjustment level and adjustment interval, and then the correspondence of different parameter and the proportion assumed by government is identified through numerical simulation; a concession adjustment model is constructed based on the beneficial objection of private and public and the rationally risk allocation is achieved by the adjustment of concession. The research of these three topics can provide a decision support for the government to choose suitable risk assume method and decide the rationale risk compensation level.