Research On The Intensive Development Of Regional Central City Based On Complx System Theory

Joseph E. Stiglitz,the Nobel Laureate in Economics in 2001, once said, "the human process of the 21st century has two major events, one is the high-tech of United States, the other is China's urbanization. China's urbanization will be the locomotive of regional economic development and generate the most important economic benefits. " The role of central cities has become increasingly prominent in urbanization. The issues of central cities development has become a hot spot and of focus. In recent years, many experts and researchers have made a lot of study on the development of central cities at home and abroad. Although it has got some achievements, the research almost used the qualitative analysis and simply quantitative analysis so that it cannot reflects the essence of the intensive development of central cities. The Intensive development of central cities is a multi-objective, multi-level, dynamic, and open complex system made up by many factors such as economy, technology, society and environment,with nonlinear characteristics such as a strong self-organized, super-cycle and gray. In this matter, the paper uses some theory and method of system analysis such as the developmental quality analysis, the grey system theory and fractal analysis to do scientific study. There are seven chapters in this paper:The first chapter analyzes the the background of the regional central city intensive development, proposed the definition and features of intensive development, and the research framework and main content are given. The second chapter reviews the recent research on urban development system theory and center cities development ,and the main problems are discussed. The third chapter uses complex systems to comprehensive analysize the development of center cities,including the basic elements and the basic characteristics of the central city, and their interaction; On this basis, the building discipline, the process and model of the evaluation index system of the intensive development of regional center cities are put forward by the study of the impact factors of central city development;and then the intensive development evaluation index system of central city are put forward on the basis of research results at home and abroad. The fourth chapter construct quantitative research model of the central city intensive development. First, the equation method of system development quality are built to the system at this stage of the development of quantitative analysis and evaluation. Secondly, the gray comprehensive association analysis model and multi-dimensional dynamic model are used to study the coupling joint development of the center city intensive development system. Finally, the fractal model is used to analyze the future development trends of the various subsystems, and the gray-linear regression model is used to study sustainable development of the center city intensive development system. In the fifth chapter, the empirical study of Shanghai intensive development is posed by the theoretical method in this paper. In the sixth chapte, based on summing up empirical results,the countermeasures and suggestions to enhance the regional central city intensive development capacity are proposed. In the seventh chapter, the main conclusion and outlook are summarized and the future research direction is pointed out.