Study Of Second-hand Ship Purchasing Decision-making Model Based On Price Fluctuations

For any shipping enterprise, ship is its foundation of survival and development. We can even regard the fleet scale as enterprise scale. As a shipping company, ship investment is one of its inevitable economic behaviors. In recent years, with the second-hand ship trading volume gradually increased, trading second-hand vessels gradually increase the proportion in ship trading, second-hand ship purchase decision has become one of the very important problems faced by many shipping companies. However, it is affected by many factors for shipping companies to choose of ordering new ships, or choose to buy second-hand ships, screening of these factors becomes the top priority task of solving ship acquisition decision-making problem. In addition, second-hand ship prices as one of the most important impacting factor in purchase decision-making is always fluctuating, by studying we found that this fluctuation is very regular. Accurately predict the future price fluctuation, and use the predicted results for the second-hand ship purchasing decision-making will greatly improve scientific and operational of the decision-making for shipping companies.Second-hand ship purchasing decision-making factors are systematically analyzed,24 factors are found divided into four categories, then the key factor is identified through the decision-making model based on AHP.The characteristics and causes of second-hand vessels price volatility are comprehensively analyzed. More than three decades of second-hand ship price data are collected. A detailed analysis of the volatility, wave frequency, period, gradient of price fluctuations has been done to summarize the main fluctuating characters. The characteristics and causes of price fluctuations are systematically organized and analyzed, and build predicting model to forecast second-hand ship prices.Second-hand ship purchasing decision-making model is constructed based on price fluctuations, and an empirical is conducted. Associated shipping companies safeguard measures and recommendations are proposed based on the results of second-hand ship purchasing decision, which include the basic requirements to purchase second-hand ship, the timing of buying second-hand ship etc.