Energy Demand In Anhui Province Based On The Theory Of Grey Forecast Analysis

Since the national implementation of the "rise of central China, Wan Jiang city belt construction" policy benefit the economic development of Anhui province,economy in Anhui province is accelerating rapidly, as well as the arrival of the increasing growth of energy need consumption in Anhui province. Energy as a pillar is a core element which guarantees its economy and society to develop in a stable and rapid way.What's more,it can accurately predict the energy demand in Anhui province,thus which offers guarantee for the supply of energy safely and effectively.This paper analyzed factors which affect the energy demand in Anhui province by means of using grey correlation analysis model,GM(1,1) model which can predict energy consumption demand in Anhui province, meanwhile by using Markov process model to correct the prediction and remedy the result of it.More specifically,there are following achievements:(1) The features of the energy consumption structure andthe energy consumption situation in Anhui province wer systematically analyzed.(2) Used grey relation analysis model to analyze the influence factors on energy demand in Anhui province. after going through a comprehensive analysis,the main factors that affect the energy demand in Anhui province have been discovered. On the one hand,the tertiary industry output value has the biggest influence on energy need;residents income effect comes to a second;the impact of GDP is the smallest;.On the other hand,in terms of industrial structure in Anhui province, the third industry has a dramatic impact on the demand for energy consumption in Anhui province;people's daily consumption is in a second place; the second industry influence was minimal.(3) Used GM(1,1) model and Markov process to predict Anhui province's energy demand. Through the prediction analysis, we modify the Markov process to improve the accuracy of it. Using this method can specifically predict coal, oil, the total energy demand,and daily demand of electricity from 2015 to 2019 in Anhui province.(4) We carried out a comparative analysis of energy supply and demand in cities of Anhui province and choosed two example city: Hefei and Ma Anshan's energy consumption data.Then, from the perspective of energy consumption elasticity coefficient, energy consumption of scale industrial enterprise and power consumption,the energy supply and consumption demand of Hefei and Maanshan city are analyzed qualitatively and the conclusion that there are differences between them can be obtained. Finally, the quantitative analysis on the correlation degree between energyconsumption of the the primary, second, tertiary industry and residents living in two cities and the total energy consumption is carried out, which shows that only from the view of the correlation degree of energy consumption, the development of the second and tertiary industry in Hefei is relatively balanced and the second industry remains subject, while Maanshan relies too much on the second industry and tertiary industry does not get the corresponding development.