| Marine fisheries resource is one significant part of natural resources, which is an important source of mankind food and also provides us for employment, economic benefits and social welfare. Sustainable utilization of marine fisheries resource (SUMFR) is the core element of sustainable development in marine economy,and sustainable utilization assessment of fisheries resource (SUAFR) has become a common topic in the marine fishery too. Based on the theories of SUAFR, early-warning science and the assessment of sustainable development, this paper tries to make a probing research on SUAFR and early-warning system from both theory and practice in order to provide a strategic decision for sustainable development of marine fishery. The paper makes an investigation on the current study related to SUMFR at home and abroad, and analyzes its existing problem, reviews their purposes and roles. And the paper builds a system and defines their related content in this topic. In chapter 2, on the basis of analyzing the biological and economic characteristics of fisheries resource and their fluctuation rules, the paper puts forward the basic theory on SUMFR, which includes the concept and connotation on SUMFR, affecting factors, judging criterions and others. There are four phases in the fisheries development, which cause four crises, i.e. biology, ecology, economy and social crises. The reasons and mechanism causing crises are analyzed from resource characteristics, property right system, financial measure and the other aspects in details. The sustainability of fishery resource is affected by the way of utilization, experience shows that the fish population as a renewable resources should be well controlled, not like the utilization of exhaustible resources. So how to sustainable utilize the fishery resources is an important project. In chapter 3, some bio-economic analysis models applied in single and multiple species fisheries are analyzed, and their advantages and disadvantages are also reviewed. It is indicated that the SUMFR is a systematic project because of many elements related and affected, it is necessary to build one whole set of indicators including economy, society, resource and institution to follow the tracks of SUMFR. In chapter 4, followed by review on main sustainable development assessments around the world, three types of the synthesis indicator, the monetary and the biophysical capacity assessments are selected after comparing their advantages and disadvantages. The paper tries to set up the basic theory frame of SUAFR including the concept of SUAFR, its principles and procedures, and its structure. In this chapter, the way on screening out indicators is advanced, and a general indicator system on SUAFR is established too. In chapter 5, the quantified methods on synthesis indicator assessment are reviewed and the general procedure is designed. Based on the varied theories and methods, three ways, which are mainly concerned with math-statistics, grey theory and barometer of sustainability, are selected as major methods for the quantified assessment. Although the synthesis indicator assessment is a common method, it is more operational than the others in the assessment of sustainable development, however, it is at random with a little to determine the weight and assess the sustainable development, and it is for expert to be subjective uncertainty and cognitive fuzziness. So, the paper is the first one putting forward the dynamic synthesis assessment on SUMFR based on neural network theory. The method not only fully takes into account the experience of experts and instinct thinking and reduces the uncertainty in the synthesis indicator assessment, but also conforms to regular method and possesses high solution efficiency. The basic theory and method of neural network are introduced for processing and analyzing the data. Neural network with the advantage functions of simulation parallel, processing, distributed information store, nonlinear, self-adaptive and self-studying, so it is now a hot topic on cross subjects in the world. In chapter 6, the early-warning theory are the first time to be introduced into SUMFR by the author in the world, and the theory system frame on early-warning of SUMFR is initially set up, which fills up the blank space in the fishery resource science. The paper brings forward the concept of early-warning of SUMFR, the early-warning system, the type and concept of indicator, the running mechanism, the way on identifying warning sign and confirming warning, and builds thegeneral indicator system and early-warning models. Meanwhile, a dynamic early-warning model on SUMFR has been set up for the first time too. Chapter 7 gives a case study of SUAFR from resources, economy and society in East China Sea. The paper analyzed the feature of fishery resources and its distribution, the utilization of fish resources in East China Sea has been evaluated and several phases are divided. Based on the guidelines for data selection, which is easy to be obtained and to be truthfulness, 11 indicators have been chosen as principal components. In this paper, some traditional methods have been used to evaluate the condition of fishery resources in East China Sea from 1978 to 1990, and their relevant results have been compared. The results from the analyzing of fishery resources in East China Sea from 1978 to 1990 have been taken as samples to build the dynamic assessment models. Based on the results, six warning sign indicators are sorted out by the method of Time-Difference Correlation Coefficient. The limits of warning sign have also been determined according to the assessment results and the development condition from 1950 to 1990. And then the dynamic early-warning model on SUMFR in East China Sea is set up. Based on the corrected statistics from 1991 to 1999 in East China Sea, both dynamic assessment models and dynamic early-warning model have been applied to analyze the condition of fishery resource. In this paper, the author presents some suggestions and measures for fisheries management, such as building payable utilization system, launching the capital management and resources accounting, developing fishery resources industrialization, adjusting fishery industry structure, setting up informatization management system and others, in order to effective recover and sustainable utilize fishery resources in East China Sea. In charter 8, the paper concludes main results, problem discussion and suggestions and new subjects for further research.
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