Policy Choice And Path Dependence In The Process Of Industrial Evolution

Based on economic history, cognition and institutions, this thesis makes a research on path dependence and policy choice in industrialization process. As for the method, the author makes a comparative research of history of industrial change. As for the aim, the author grasps historical logic and development law from the aspects of cognition, institutions change and policy choice, and mainly through the research of comparative economic history, learns about the path dependence and choice theory that different countries have been facing in their own industrialization process. And thus, it provides evidence for system creation and policy choice of Chinese industry. Starting with and focusing on division evolution .The thesis states that industry is the result of specialization division evolution. Furthermore, specialization division evolution is influenced by factors, such as market scope, institutions arrangement, resource endowments, culture and so on. The direction of evolution is uncertain and its evolution path is diversified. Every nation has its own industry development track. Industrialization change, in which the beginning condition influences later development, cognitive level, institutions preparation and policy choice play an important role in the development of industry, is path dependent and dynamic. Besides encouragement mechanism, institutional arrangement of contributive division requires predictable change about policy choice.The thesis is divided into three parts. The first part is basic theory of industrial evolution. Based on the explanation of some concepts, such as division specialization and industrial institutions, institutional change and path dependence, belief, governmental behavior and policy etc., and on the critical analysis of the basic theory of industrialization and cognitional evolution. The author puts forward the basic theoretical vein in analyzing of industrial evolution. The second part deals with history process of world industrial evolution. The author makes history analysis and explains about the world history perspective of industrialization development. The third part is about history evolution path of Chinese industrialization. Based onanalysis of historical track and path dependence, the thesis gives new explanations to the particularity of industrial beginning condition of new China and cognition, institutions evolution of priority development strategy of heavy industry. At the end, the author puts forward her suggestion on institutions creation and policy choice of frog jumping evolution path of sustainable development that Chinese new-type industrialization should take.The thesis attempts to apply theoretical analysis way of institutional economics, evolution economics and comparative economics in history studies of industrialization. It builds an analysis frame of industrialization change which is based on division evolution. The analysis frame is a development by compared with institutions analysis tradition that ignored division and is static. Cognitive and institutional change and policy choice are applied into analysis of industrialization change which may be regarded as brave attempt. There is still very large theoretical room in the field of industrialization change for further research.