Studies On The Development Of Dairy Industry In China

The dairy industry is a young department with weak base in agriculture and food processing enterprises in China. Since the reform and opening-up, dairy industry has developed very fast, with the total amount of milk and output of dairy products increasing continuously. It is gradually becoming the hot trade in agricultural development and plays a more and more obvious role in adjusting agricultural structure, increasing peasant income, expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption and improving national physical condition. Dairy industry is going to be an important industry concerning the development of national economy and social progress. At present, the milk industry has already entered a new stage after five years' high-speed development. It is estimated that in 2005 the total output of milk will still increase very fast. But what we should pay more attention to be the dairy industry of our country has entered a key phase. First of all, after China's entry into WTO, China will be involved in the economic globalization more deeply, and the ability of Chinese government will face more challenge in all round aspects. Under the double pressures of canceling the export subsidies for dairy products and cutting down dairy products tariff to a great extent, whether dairy industry could succeed in implementing the leap-type development strategy, and survive in the fierce global competition is a great subject in front of the government. Secondly, the socio-economic development of our country has already entered a key stage, consequently, more complicated and complex problems and issues which have an impact on the dairy industry are and will be in front of us and this situation would last quite a long time in the future. Thirdly, there are a great many questions in dairy industry at present, for instance, the growth rate of milk production and the consumption of dairy products ease up, and the enthusiasm for cow cultivation cool, the pressure of the dairy processing enterprises is strengthened. Therefore a deeper research to dairy industry's development of our country has to be carried out to prevent it from stagnating or even changing radically and guarantee the development of dairy industry in a healthy and sustainable way. This is the starting point of this dissertation as well.This research amounts to six chapters including the introduction. Chapter one as a part of the introduction introduces the purpose and meaning of this dissertation. Chapter two is the logical starting point for this subject, evaluating the history of Chinese dairy industry and its current situation, and making a sound judgment to the obstacle and orientation of dairyindustry. Chapter three introduces the current situation of global dairy industry under the prerequisite of international trade liberalization and studies the development, characteristics and current situation of dairy industry in the U.S.A., Australia and India to offer several references for the development of the dairy industry of our country. The first three chapters are the base and prerequisite of this dissertation. Chapter four and chapter five is the core of this dissertation. Under the prerequisite of analyzing the supply, demand and trade of Chinese dairy industry by general equilibrium, it lays emphasis on researching the competitiveness of Chinese dairy industry within WTO frame. This dissertation finally points out the guide function of macro economic policies. Chapter six carries on the benign coupling of dairy industry policy implementation on the basis of conclusion commentary. Some creative points in this research are as follows:1. Summarize the characteristics and the development of dairy industry of our country accurately; and launch an overall analysis and look into the development of dairy industry in the eyes of history according to different links. The degree of knowledge of history determines the ability to grasp future, and dairy industry is just the case. In the study of dairy industry, its foundation of emerging and development in the past must be reviewed to look for the inherent development orbit. Only in this way, the future orientation could be correctly confirmed.This research beginning with industry link does systematic research to the development of the dairy industry of our country and strives to accurately summarize the characteristics of each link during the course of development. During the process of studying, I launch an overall analysis and look into to the development of the dairy industry of our country in the eyes of history according to different links, summarize the characteristics of each stage. On this basis, I propose the developing direction of the dairy industry of our country.2. The development of dairy industry of our country is predicted through many kinds of economic models. The 11th Five-Year Plan is an important strategic period for social and economic development, especially for the development of dairy industry. Therefore, predicting the capacity of milk production of our country and the consumption demand is of great significance for defining the thinking of a short or middle term policy for the development of dairy industry rationally. Many kinds of economic models are adopted in this dissertation, so the supply and demand structure of dairy industry and their equilibrium in the 11th Five-Year Plan can be got more correctly.3. This dissertation comparatively analyzes competitiveness of Chinese dairy industry in WTO frame. This research is based on the theory of comparative advantage and regionaloverall arrangement theory of the advantageous agricultural products, using some econometric methods such as "diamond model" and grey related measure to comparatively analyze the competitiveness of Chinese dairy industry in WTO frame.On the foundation that the dairy industry of our country does not have competitive advantage but has comparative advantage, I analyze from the different angle according to theories, put forward market orientation and market tactics for the future development of Chinese dairy industry, and offer the theoretic support for the industry orientation and policy system of Chinese dairy industry.