Study On Simulation For Sales Force Recruiting Management

The achieving of product value is essential to a company's survival and development, and the success of the selling organization lies on the salespeople it recruits. On the issues of salespeople recruiting, the scholars have made research from different viewpoints such as psychology, marketing, human resource, organization behavior, and have got many valuable conclusions. Progress on some new technology, for instance Artificial intelligence, qualitative simulation, and so on, provided some new ways for taking advantage of these conclusions and perfecting the recruiting function. The chief issue of recruitment is performance forecasting. This dissertation analyzes diversified factors which affect performance, sums up a framework for performance forecasting, through which complex relations between the factors and selling outcomes may be sorted orderly, and explains the reason for adopting the convex fuzzy number for the semantic definition. Based on the general formation of uncertain reasoning formula, combined with the fuzzy match using pairs of necessity-possibility measures, a concept fuzzy reliability was further defined. Furthermore, the reasoning process is designed, and the sales force selecting qualitative reasoning model based on fuzzy logic was established. The model explored not only from the applicant being selected individually, but also try to find out how to deal with the match between the scheme composed by some applicants and the requirement of company. The model explores not only from the applicant being selected individually, but also tries to find out how to deal with the match between the scheme composed by some applicants and the requirement of company. Being a special method dealing with the uncertain knowledge, qualitative simulation is a newer way for solving complicated question. Current application is mainly centered on the natural area, such as physics and biology. In the social and economic fields, majority of the application remains in the lab and is difficult to put into practice. So the differences existing in state transferring, temporal information disposing and constraint expressing between the physical system and the social and economic system are analyzed, and the advanced method of fuzzy qualitative simulation based on the variable-categorizing is brought forward. In this method, the standardization for revising the result of compute is designed, and the temporal information is imported in the constraints. The chief issue is to estimate the optimal size of salespeople in the Sales HRM. Through the analysis of influence from the distribution of governable time on either the information gathering or selling effort, the exploration of carryover induced by the information and the performance, the discussion of the qualitative relationship involving the sales promotion efficiency and performance appraisal, the fuzzy qualitative simulation model of salespeople's size optimizing is built. One of the characteristic of the selling job is high turnover rate, as the result, the selling organization can not keep on its optimal size, which explains the necessity of constituting the recruiting policy. With the salespeople's turnover and recruiting, the actual number of salespeople will fluctuate around the optimal size, and the cost of vacant territories will arise with the actual personnel going under the optimal size as well as the cost of excess personnel with going beyond. Through the analysis of correlative cost and the impactive elements of recruiting policy, the dissertation transforms the recruiting policy decision-making into the issue for confirming the proportion of salespeople's number to the optimal size at the time of re-recruiting and the proportion of over-recruiting. By regarding the turnover and the arrival post time of new employees as random variable, the simulation model of sales-force recruiting policy is put forward. In the end, it is implemented by using Arena simulation software. The archetype of the sales-force recruiting management system is implemented through the integration of sales-force selecting fuzzy qualitative reasoning system and sales-force size estimating qualitative simulation system. The architecture and main module function of archetype is analyzed, and the fuzzy match, the process of uncertainty reasoning in selecting system as well as the data organization and the simulation control mechanism in estimating system is dissertated.