Study On The Economic Effect Of China Agricultural Mechanization

Research on the economic effects of agricultural mechanization development in China has theoretical significance and practical value in carrying out Law of the People's Republic of China on Promoting the Development of Agriculture Mechanization, pushing the policy of Industry Finance Agriculture, enhancing the integrated agriculture productivity and accelerating the course of building a well-off society in an all-round way.By analyzing documents, the paper summarizes theories and concepts related to agricultural mechanization, including inherent nature, program items, characteristics and tasks of agricultural mechanization. Meanwhile, it analyzes present research status of agricultural mechanization in China from different aspects, for example, system analysis, relationship between agricultural mechanization and economy, measurement of agricultural mechanization contribution, benefit and development level evaluation, and development phase etc, together with basic research status analysis of overseas agricultural mechanization from variable aspects, such as optimized system analysis, research of policy theory, sustainable development, analysis of Computable General Equilibrium model, technological economic growth theory.Based on the analysis of the course of industrialization both at home and abroad, the paper studies on the phases features and effects of agricultural mechanization in China, it also analyzes the representations form from different aspects, such as the replacement of production tools, the improvement of integrated agriculture productivity and the reasonable structure modification of rural economy etc. Besides, the main limiting factors influencing the effects of agricultural mechanization in China at present are described.By the economic analysis of the agricultural mechanization development effects in China, the paper does qualitative research into impacts of effect degree that different levels of agricultural mechanization have on the rural economy by means of edge effect analysis in regression model, and farther explanation about the impacts that agricultural mechanization have on the rural economy is indicated using the method of simulation of C-D production function model.Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied in this paper when main factors which affect the development of agricultural mechanization are decomposed effectively and rationally. And the mathematic model is built in the paper; therefore the dominant factors are established. Meanwhile, it analyzes the relationship between the five main factors quantitatively using the method of stepwise regression, including the relationship between the development levels of agricultural mechanization represented by the level of agricultural mechanical equipments and different aspects, for example, the peasants' per capita income, the ratio of migration of agriculture labor, the area of farmland for each farmer, the population receiving an education above junior middle school, the amount of agricultural scientific research fund for each farmer etc.Taking advantage of modeling and simulation theory, the paper establishes dynamic simulation model of economic effects about the development of agricultural mechanization in China based on the mode of economic growth; by estimating parameter, scenario analysis is established with the aim of providing theoretical basis for discussing the development trend of agricultural mechanization in new period.