Multi-scenario Simulation Of Land Use Change Along China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

As the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative(B&R),China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)will exert a significant impact on the economic and social development of the two countries and their surrounding areas,and plays a demonstration and driving role in the implementation of B&R.The planning and construction of CPEC is inseparable from the scientific cognition of the spatial patterns and change processes of both land resources and ecoenvironment along this area.Since CPEC was proposed,scholars have done a lot of research and analysis on its construction and prospect.These studies mainly consider the risks in the construction of CPEC from the perspectives of politics,economy and security,while studies on the construction of CPEC from the perspective of land resources are still lacking.Land use/land cover change provides important background data for Land resource planning and ecological environment monitoring.Simulation study on land use change at different spatial and temporal scales plays an important role in revealing the impact of human activities on regional ecological environment change and can provide support for management decisions.The research progress of land use change simulation model and scenario analysis method is reviewed in this thesis.According to the dual background of the construction of the CPEC and climate change,three different development scenarios have been set for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor region,namely Baseline Development(BD)scenario,Investment Priority Oriented(IPO)scenario and Harmonious Development(HD)scenario.On this basis,a regional land use System Dynamics(SD)model was constructed based on statistical data and expert knowledge to simulate land use demand under different development scenarios,and then coupled with the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model to simulate the spatial distribution of land use from 2016 to 2030.Based on the simulation results,the spatial and temporal patterns of land use in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor region under different development scenarios are analyzed,and targeted suggestions for future sustainable land resource use are proposed.The results show that:(1)The relative error of demand simulation is less than 9%,the overall accuracy and Kappacoefficient of the simulation were over 90% according to the comparision with the actual land use data in 2015,which means the SD and FLUS coupling model effectively reflected the land use change pattern of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.It's suitable for the simulation of land use change in CPEC under different scenarios.(2)There are significant differences between the simulated land use of different scenarios to 2030.Construction land expanded in all three scenarios at different speeds,the expansion speed of HD scenario is in the middle,while under the IPO scenario,the expansion speed is the fastest.Under the HD scenario,increment of pakistan's cultivated land area is less than half of that in the most increased BD scenario.Kashgar's cultivated land area increased the most in IPO scenario,which is about three quarters of that in the HD scenario.The forest land has been effectively restored only under the HD scenario.Generally,the HD scenario takeing both socialeconomic development and eco-environment protection into account is the most ideal scenario among the three scenarios.(3)The simulation results can provide data support for the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the assessment of eco-environment.Through the analysis of land use patterns under different scenarios,some inspirations about the future development of the region are obtained,such as controlling population growth,improving the yield per unit area of grain,improving the efficiency of construction land,promoting the development of unused land,promoting the restoration of forest land,strengthening the management of water resources.