Construction Project Risk Analysis And Empirical Research On Risk Management Of BT Model

Risk Management, which is to identify, analysis, quantify the uncertaininformation that is extruded from the interior and exterior environment of a project,and to conduct accurate evaluation of the risk and the propriety of risk control, is asystematic engineering and a very hot topic in today's research field of projectmanagement. In big construction projects and such fields as national defense,aviation and nuclear power etc, risk management has magnificent practical value.However risk management is continuously facing new challenges because of thecomplexity of the exterior environment, the randomcity of risk, the instability of theresult of risk control and the interference from such system factors asnon-marketing factors. Compared to developed countries, we lag in such aspects asconsciousness of risk management and the overall skills of risk management,whichare the goal and significance of this thesis.Based on the studies conducted by foreign scholars, this paper summarizes asystematic study conducted from both theoretical aspect and applicable aspect ofproject risk management. The main sections of this paper are as follows:Section I, based on systematic review of current theories and tools for projectrisk management, point out issues that need to be resolved both from the aspect oftheory and from practice. According to actual status and characters ofBuild-Transfer (BT) project risk management in China, discuss the importance ofproject risk management implementation and BT model study, and raise principles,theory system and tools for the construction of total project risk managementsystem.In section 2, build up a quantitative method regarding to the rich definition andmulti-dimension attributes of risk to reflect the multi-aspective of risk. Also buildup the project risk analysis system from the intuition/judgment/experience, which isbased on character map, methods of identifying risk and oriented object presented,to meet the requirement of risk management and attempt to pioneer a new way toidentify risk reliably and economically.In section 3, find proper approach for risk assessment according to specificobjective of each project and different type of project risk. Build a multi-level riskassessment model by using entropy theory, gathering statistics and multi-stage riskfuzzy evaluation method, which is to measure and evaluate the risk level and riskloss. Not only the method promotes the effectiveness and credibility of eachevaluation,, but also the solution complexity is avoided, which comes from riskproblem's grey and fuzzy.In section 4, study in very detail about the representative character, thespecialty of origination and the complexity of different partner of Build-Transfer(BT) invest project management model. Adopt information gamble andprincipal-agent model to analysis the relationship and risk-share mechanism of BTmodel.Analysis the strategy of risk avoidance from client system, supervise system,contract system and so on, thus provide principle for the design of a project riskshare mode.Project operation model and organization structure are key factors for riskcontrol and risk to control and to avoid risk availability. Firstly, risk factor ofpartners in this project are analyzed, and then the model of principal-agent fromGame Theory is introduced into the relationship among the client, supervisor andthe BT invest building unit. Lastly it explains how a client's moral risk destroysoptimum excitation and provides a criteria on further designing a project risk sharemode.In section 5, As there is requirement of project risk management from practicalengineering project, a empirical research on a BT project is presented. Project riskplan and project risk analysis, risk assessment and risk control are presented in verydetail. As every project has it's unique characteristic, the practice research is just togive some limited ideal.In last section the main subjects discussed are summarized and somelimitations in this dissertation are discussed, and then some potential researchdirections are pointed out. At the same time some subject methodologies andsuggestion are proposed.