Project Portfolio Desion-Making And Integrated Project Portfolio Risk Anagement System

1. As economic elements such as technology, goods&materials, information, etc. spread more easily, the traditional longitudinal economic operation mode was transforming into horizontal mode gradually, the business scope of project proprietor is being expanded constantly, project portfolio is being arised because of these, project portfolio management (PPM) and project groups become the focus of project management research field.2. This research mainly study four parts of following contents by the neural network theory, population ecology theory, structural theory of Hall's three-dimension and IDEFO modeling method. Part one, the concept of project portfolio is discussed firstly; Then, the necessary, characteristic, concept and meaning of PPM is analyzed and discussed; Finally, the project portfolio management is thought it is a dynamic lasting execution and repeated circulation course, and a project portfolio management process (PPMP) is proposed that is feedback and circulation double rings framework. Part two, the appraise and choose of project portfolio is discussed, taking Hi-Tech investment project portfolio (HIPP) as an example, a BP neural network model that is used to appraise and choose project portfolio is set up utilizing MATLAB, and the appraise and choose on HIPP is actualized by the model based on PPT, a project portfolio is obtained. In order to solve the question on how to construct optimized project portfolio based on time, the concept of the project whole life cycle (PWLC) is discussed firstly, and a moderate project portfolio tactic (PPT) is given out based on the change of cash flow of PWLC. Part three, the ecology attribute of project portfolio is opened out according to the parallel analyse between project portfolio and biology population firstly, and project portfolio is divided into TPP(transverse project portfolio) and LPP (lengthways project portfolio), and LPP is subdivided further; Then, based on population ecology theory, TPPSD(transverse project portfolio scale desion-making) and LPPSD(lengthways project portfolio scale desion-making) model are founded, and taking n =2 as the example, the stability solves of models and stable condition are probed, the optimal scale of project portfolio is received. Part four, firstly, the risk on project portfolio is described, and the integrated project portfolio risk management (IPPRM) is propsed based on integrated management, then a integrated TCLK project portfolio risk management system (TCLK system) is put forward from PPMP, the procedure of project portfolio risk management, the method of project portfolio risk management and the organization of project portfolio risk management aspects using for reference to the structural theory of Hall's three-dimension.3. The research is the basic research about project portfolio management, but the content in it is general, and the achievement is strong in operation and applicability in practice, and some conclusions are suitable for the questions such...