An Early Warning Evaluation Research Into The Food Security In China

In recent years, food safety has become a global issue. China is a populous country as well as a big food-consuming country. So the security of food supply is extremely remarkable. The security of food has been established as the focus of our country in the "12th five-year" plan and government work report. Especially the acceleration development of economic and lead to industrialization acceleration and population expansion. On one hand, it calls for the support of the basic industry, especially the grain production, on the other hand, it will occupy the cultivated land and fund, pollute environment, encroach the resources of grain production and destroy the circumstances of grain production. All this will affect the security of food. Does the grain production of our country with limited resources and space can satisfy the economic development and social stability in the future, to what degree the grain production is safe? What is the situation of food safety of our country? Therefore, it is necessary to conduct research on our country’s food demand and supply as well as food security, and based on this, to carry out an early warning analysis of food security in the future and determine the concrete situation of grain production. It is of theoretical and practical significance to lay down the relevant grain policy of our country, maintain the sustainable development of the economy and social harmony of our country. This paper is intended to:1. Utilize gray prediction model. To predict the grain yields of our country in "12th five-year" based on the detailed analysis of the over-the-year grain production, the chief food crops and the present conditions of grain production.2. Analyze the amount of food consumption and demand condition of our country, especially the amount required for humans, animal feed and industrial uses, and predict the amount of food demand of our country during the period of "12th five-year" by means of gray prediction model.3. Establish the new precaution evaluation index system and work out warning coefficient based on the research into the precaution of the food security by others and integrating the practical situation of our country and the author’s analysis. 4. Put forward a series of relevant countermeasures and proposals for dealing with the grain production of China during the "12th five-year" based on the analytical research on the food demand and supply as well as alarm evaluation of our country.