Research On The Influencing Factors Of Real Estate Price In Shanghai

The research on real estate market price has the important significance both in theory and in practice. It not only provides the reference for enterprise's management, provides the support for the investor in securities investment and the industrial investment, but also provides the help for government's macro-control.The real estate market that started in Shanghai since 1992, obtained the fast development. The housing sales area growth fluctuation was great, while the selling price rose with steady steps. In the period, some policies have come out for the real estate market in Shanghai, and some beneficial explorations have also been carried on to the real estate market control. The development of Shanghai housing market met a new period since the welfare housing allocation was cancelled in 1998. After 2002, not only housing sales area grows rapidly, but also the price of the house rises quickly with the increase amplitude about 20% per year. This phenomena has arisen intense debate between the academic circle and the industrial field. The price of the house, in particular Shanghai's housing price, has become the hotspot which people pay more attention to.It not only concerns a sound development of national economy and the finance system's safety, but also concerns the improvement of people's living standard whether the real estate market is healthy and steady. The high real estate price makes the economy of Japan fall into the predicament and halt for ten years. In 1997, the financial crisis has close relation with real estate market in Southeast Asia. The housing price of Hong Kong has decreased more than 50%, and economic growth has been stroked since that. Then, Shanghai should do it's best to prevent from that when it develops real estate market and economy.Under this background, the thesis has carried on research to the influencing factor of residential market price in Shanghai. The purpose of research is mainly for solving two problems: one is which there are the factors influencing the housing price in Shanghai to fluctuate; the other is how those factors influence the housing price. First of all, the thesis has studied the domestic and international literature and runningmechanism of the real estate market, has analyzed the state that the price of the domestic and international real estate market fluctuated, has reviewed the changes of the real estate market in Shanghai, on this basis, has confirmed the relevant influencing factors of housing price, which need to be researched; the second, this paper has made the empirical analysis of influence of the policy on the Shanghai housing price, influence of economic fundamentals on the housing price, influence of the housing mortgage loan on the housing price, as well as influence of exchange rate fluctuation to housing price; lastly, carried on comprehensive analysis to the influencing factor. All contents of thesis is divided into eight chapters totally, the main contents and research innovation work is as follows:(1) Firstly, the thesis has carried on research to basic theory and model of the real estate. The study includes four parts: the first, has studied running mechanism and defect of the market of real estate; the second, researched Thailand, Hong Kong and Japanese markets of real estate to occur the course of reversal, and analyzed the factors that influence the real estate market; the third, researched real estate market change and the development trend of Shanghai city; the last, analyzed the relevant factors of influencing housing price in Shanghai.(2) Secondly, the thesis has carried on research to the factor influencing residential market price of Shanghai separately. It is divided into five respects:① has researched the influence of the government policy on the real estate market and analyzed the influence of the government policy on the housing price in shanghai.② has analyzed the Shanghai price running mechanism in real estate market. It indicates that price conduction mechanism on the supply-demand relationship is unstable in the Shanghai residential market.③ has established the model to analyze the influence of economic fundamentals that included Shanghai population, Per Capital Disposal Income, the consumer price index and GDP on the housing price. Through the VEC model to analyze these factors, we can found primary factor that has made the Shanghai housing price change in the past 15 years.④ has analyzed the influence of the housing mortgage loan on the housing price.This chapter has made an empirical research on influence of the housing mortgage loan that has introduced the loan ratio, the loan interest rate, the loan term and the income growth change. Using Per Capital Disposal Income, it has discussed the housing price affordability of Shanghai city resident in 2004.⑤ has studied the Chinese and American exchange rate game strategy, the income and the process, predicted the result of Chinese and American exchange rate game and analyzed its influence through the conduction mechanism to the Shanghai housing price.(3) Finally, the thesis carried on comprehensive analysis to the influencing factors and housing price finally, and made the conclusion and forecast. It summarized the main work for the thesis, and put forward the proposal direction of further research.