The Price Of Residential Land Based On Housing Affordability And The Judgment For The Rationality Of It —take Normal Residential Land For Example

The price of urban residential land may appear reasonable and unreasonable fluctuation in the process of price fluctuation, the reasonable fluctuation is the rising or falling of residential land price under the influence of macroeconomic, the unreasonable fluctuation is a rapid and sharp rising of residential land price under the situation of strong demand for land speculation and ineffective regulation of government, it is called the foam of land price. Simultaneously, the rationality of residential land price will immediately influence the stable and sustainable development of the real estate market and the national economy. Therefore, the research for the rationality of residential land price has important significance.In this paper, theoretical and empirical research method is combined. It establishes a model to calculate the effective demand price of residential land on the basis of explaining the interrelation between residential land price and housing affordability. Simultaneously, it introduces the concept of deviation and uses it into the construction of the method system to judge the rationality of the price of urban residential land. At the end of this paper, it uses the judgment method into the research of Nanjing. And it separately judges the rationality of the overall price level of residential land in Nanjing which take the eight districts located in the south of Yangtze River for example, and that in the six real estate plates corresponding with the eight districts located in the south of Yangtze River, The main content of this article consists of four parts:The first part defines some concepts related to the rationality of residential land price, and explains the theoretical basis for the judgment of the rationality. From the view of microscopic point, the reasonable price of residential land is a range which floats around the effective demand price,and it’s a price which would try to satisfy the housing needs of most families. At the same time, the rationality of the residential land price is a result for the judgment of the rationality. When the price of residential land has no bubble and is in a healthy state, the price is reasonable; on the contrary, it is unreasonable.The second part establishes a model to calculate the effective demand price of residential land. Firstly, it analyzes the influential factors of the price of residential land and the interrelation between the residential land price and housing affordability. By analyzing the influential factors, we know that housing affordability is an important factor to the residential land price, and it affects the price of residential land indirectly by affecting the supply and demand of residential land. Secondly, it clears the mechanism and processes of the interaction between housing affordability and residential land price by analyzing the interrelation between them. And at the basis of the above studies, this part establishes a model to calculate the effective demand price of residential land in the perspective of housing affordability.The third part of this article is the research about the theoretical method to judge the rationality of residential land price.It definites the concept of price deviation for residential land on the basis of real estate bubble theory and deviation theory. The deviation of residential land price is a ratio between the difference of actual and effective demandl price and the effective demand price, it may be a positive or negative number. The rationality of the price of residential land can be judged by determining whether the deviation of residential land price is in the reasonable range.The fourth part is the empirical research of Nanjing. The empirical research is using the theoretical method for judging the rationality of residential land price into practice, aiming at testing the scientific and feasibility of this method. In order to providing theoretical basis for the macro-control of land market, the empirical research uses the price of ordinary houses in Nanjing as the sample data, and use the theoretical method to judge the state of health for residential land price in the eight districts located in the south of Yangtze River and the corresponding real estate plate, and makes further analysis combined with the actual situation of economic and social development.