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Trade Strategy And Policy For China's Oil Security

Posted on:2008-11-13Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:S H XiongFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119360212487360Subject:World economy
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With the rapid development of the economy of China, the demand of energy has been increasing sharply. But the domestic energy reserves are in severe shortage and their output can't meet the need of economic development. The demand of energy depends greatly on import, especially the import of oil. China becomes the second largest crude oil consumption country in the world while the largest one is America. In 2006, Degree of Dependence upon oil import has reached 47%, which is 4.1% higher than that of 2005. According to IEA, China's 80 percent of oil consumption will depend on import in 2030. The increase of oil consumption and import doesn't only lead to high pressure of domestic oil production but also exacerbate the importing competition of oil resources between China and other countries, which educes security of oil supply and other problems. By far, there have been a lot of potential and practical disadvantages which threaten the country's oil security although the oil supply hasn't had massive halt yet.The definition of oil security is that one oil import country could obtain external oil resources in appropriate price and steady amount at all time in order to meet the need of economic and social development. In the term of import and export, the definition emphasizes that our main aim is to obtain external oil resources and the problems are related to"whether their prices and amounts are appropriate or not"and"whether the country's economy and society can get the rapid development". As a result, the higher the Degree of Dependence upon oil import for one country is , the more prominent the problem of oil security . In the other hand, all the factors including oil price of international market, the situation of demand and supply of oil, international environment of politics and the development of science and technology, will influence one country's oil security. Energy security contains the following two implications: One is the stability of energy supply, and the other is the security of energy use. This paper mainly discusses the security of energy. The stability of energy supply is the stable degree of safe energy supply, which can meet the need of one county's survival and development. The stability include energy resources demand of social produce and resident life and reliable fuel supply of military affairs activities of national defense the security of energy resources is key to one county's economy. Safe and ample energy resources will sustain the rapid development of economy and achieve the strategic object of the country.If one country's energy is controlled by other countries, its economy will have the biggest menace. Energy, as the base of international economy, has become the competitive object in the world scope. Energy is on the top of industry chain. The volatility of price will influence all faces of society, such as the price of commodity and service, inflation rate, the economy and finance; it will also impact the mechanism of geopolitics, international economy and finance. It will lead to the changes of international politics, economy and military affairs. In the modern industrial society, petroleum has become the most strategic energy and raw materials. Transportation, electricity and all kinds of national industries depend on oil, and even some countries regard oil industry as their pillar industry. But because of the imbalance of oil distributing, only few countries have abundant reserve. thus oil become the focus of conflict and friction. Several oil crises have shocked the development of national economy. As a result, oil security is the key to energy sources and is the strategic materials of economy, national defense and martial security.This paper makes energy sources as main discussed issue, researches the trade tactic of Chinese oil security, Combines academic analysis and positive research, analyses many reports about energy, through many ways such as academic analysis, computation model, logistic argumentation, investigation and so on. This paper underlies energy sources especially oil trade. In this paper, there are many datum and s historical analysis and mantic analysis. Using"STIRPAT model", CLA and CERCMA and linking fact and the author's researches about the relevant matters, the paper discusses about the actuality of Chinese oil resources , many challenges of oil security , the problems of oil security and supply and trade pattern of international oil. In the paper, we analyze energy tactic of primary countries, evaluate the strategies of Chinese energy security and trade and study how to achieve the trade strategies of Chinese energy security. In the end, the author put his advice on the trade strategies of Chinese energy security.According to the actualities and the problems of Chinese energy, we can find that with the rapid development of economy, oil security has become more and more important, the scale of the import of crude oil and Degree of Dependence upon oil import are increasing, the expenditure of crude oil is enhancing and the rate of consume is faster than the increase of domestic crude oil. Chinese oil reserves are short and the environment of China oil diplomacy is complicated. The source of oil is unstable and the price of oil has the climbing trend in the world scope. There are a lot of problems about Chinese energy security, for example, the problems of the source and transport of the energy. At present, the sustaining increase of the demand of energy poses tremendous pressure to the supply of energy sources. The Chinese average energy recoverable resource per person is lower than the world average level. In the final consume structure of the Chinese energy sources, high consumes energy is the majority. The quantity of the Chinese energy demand grows quickly. Relative backwardness of energy technology has affected the enhancement of energy supplies. Moreover there are multitudinous hidden dangers of energy security.From the analysis about the world energy, especially about the petroleum supply and demand and the pattern of trade we discovered that the world energy specially exist a very big gap. Some international agencies think that the basic analysis and judgment about the supply and demand of world oil in the next 20-30 years will be more austere. At present, the center of gravity of the global petroleum demand has shifted. The American energy information bureau forecasts in the"Energy Forecast Report in 2003"that from 2001 to 2025, for the demand of the world oil, its average annual rate of growth 1.6%. The annual average rate of petroleum demand is 1.3% in the industrialized countries. In the developing nations, their demands of the world oil grow quickly and the rate of increment is 3.0%. China's rate achieves 3.9% which is only inferior to India (4.8%). The quantity of oil consumption North America, Asian and Pacific and Western Europe's accounts for about 80% of the world total oil consumption. But the progress of the other surplus reserves only account for 11.1%, the serious insufficient of the reserves will cause the oil output of above three locals to glide down and let the contradictory of supply and demand become intense. In the next 30 years, the proportion of these areas's oil import will become higher and they will more and more depend on import. IEA forecasts in the"World Energy Prospect—Summary And Conclusion in 2006"that from 2006 to 2030, it estimates that the demand of the global energy will grow slightly more than 1/2 and the annual average rate of increment is 1.6%. From 2006 to 2015, during this period the growth of oil demand will be bigger than 1/4. In the forecast time, the growth of the developing nation's demands is above 70%and only China will account for 30%. The rate of increase of these national economies and population is faster than 21member nations of the OECD, thus it will change the center of gravity of energy demand in the future. This paper considered the situation of the world energy supplies and combined the rapid development of the Chinese economy. It considers that it should be optimistic estimate that China economy will maintain high growth at 10-11% in the period of"the 10th five- year", by such rate of rise the energy demand will surpass greatly the forecast of the national development and reform committee in the ??Energy Plan"the 10th five- year".In the future, China will depend more on the energy import especially oil import and the proportion of oil's consumption in the world energy will increase. The conflict between China and other countries will continually aggrandize. Under the background of the international oil's price, which rises endlessly, the safe situation of the Chinese petroleum is stern.Under this kind of stern situation, this paper has studied the important expense countries of oil, and it told us these countries how to safeguard their oil's safe in the condition of own deficient resources, such as Japan and Korean. From the energy strategy of the world primary expense countries, we discovered that these countries all have the perfect energy strategy and vigorously develops the conservative energy technology. These countries actively revise conservative energy datum and diligently enhance the effective avail of the energy. They also develop solar and wind energy, fuel and cell, the vegetative fuel and other new energy. Through purchasing the overseas petroleum companies and participating in the oil development of oil, they cultivates their own core oil enterprises and increases their oil mining proportion in the overseas in order that they can keep the stability of oil import ,because the relationship of the political diplomacy among countries can influence this kind of stability. These countries do all best to reduce the risk of oil's price fluctuation and to research dynamoelectric facility of atomic energy in order that they have so many uranium resources that they can meet the needs of atomic generate electricity. These countries continually perfect their environment of investment and construction. They vigorously advances international cooperation such as new energy, atomic generates electricity and so on. Some countries have established some perfect systems which are beneficial to researching the new energy technology. They support the enterprise to develop and use new technology. Moreover, these countries all have the quite perfect system of strategic oil reserve.This paper also has carried on the appraisal to the Chinese energy security and the trade strategy. These papers study how to achieve the trade strategies of Chinese energy sources security. In the end, I will put forward my advice about the trade strategies of Chinese energy sources security. China should adopt appropriate strategies to realize energy security."To the coal raises the oil"may be a good ideal and it should adjust coal trade polity. We should establish scientific and standard oil trade policy system, establish reasonable price system of domestic petroleum and perfect the Chinese oil futures market. We should establish a linkage mechanism between oil reserve and petroleum futures market. On the other hand, we should establish a perfect energy educational system to provide the foundation and the backing for the energy security, which has the important practical significance. If the above suggestions can be carried out, we must have the support of education. Through the educational way, we can let public set up the correct energy values in the school so that we can establish stable foundation for the following energy use, the policy promotion as well as the energy's science and technology research. China must strengthen the energy education to meet the need of the national development. We should adopt proper measure to cope with the shock of greenhouse gas and the high price of energy. Through the energy education, we can help to-be public to form well energy consciousness and approval the energy policy from the angle of attitude and value. In the end, people can form two customs: one is saving the energy in the life and making good use of energy; the other is exploiting the new energy zealously.
Keywords/Search Tags:China, Oil Security, Trade Strategy
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