Global Agricultural Trade Network And Its Implications For China's Food Security

Food security in agricultural resources-starved regions has been threatened by a growing population,expanding economies,and accelerating urbanization globally.It is also expected to be exacerbated by climate changes.Hence,international agricultural trade is increasingly pronounced for ensuring global food security.It not only feeds the world a greater and healthier diet but also strengthens the economic ties among nations.Countries are profiting from these trades or filling their shortages;an international channel for agricultural surplus and deficit transfers is thus established.Globally,a fastgrowing population directly leads to expanding demand for agricultural products,which has increased the environmental pressure caused by agricultural production,resulting in a significant shortage of resources-such as water and land.However,land resources are immobile,and water resources can only flow in a limited range;agricultural products that depend on these resources output can spread worldwide.The agricultural trade has become an effective means of redistributing global water and land resources.The accelerated integration of agricultural economic integration has prompted countries to have certain connections between their food security and global agricultural trade.Particularly for China,the largest importer of agricultural products,subject to the dual threat of structural imbalance between supply and demand as well as external environmental constraints,how to make use of both domestic and international resources and their markets to ensure China's food security has become an urgent research focus.In order to investigate the impact of agricultural trade on global food system changes and Chinese food security issues,this study employs a combination of complex network analysis,heat equivalent conversion,time series analysis,system dynamics,and scenario simulation prediction to carry out the work quantitatively.Based on the Agricultural Products Trade Network(APTN)as a manifestation,the study aims to sort out the supply security role of agricultural trade for major importing countries and explore the economic benefits and trade structure optimization of exporting countries.Taking China as the primary target area,I analyze the role of international markets in bridging the gap between the supply and demand of agricultural products at the peak of China's population from a trade perspective.In response to the ever-changing global environment,the risks of external environmental changes on China's food security are simulated.The study consists of seven chapters.Chapters 1 is devoted to the introduction,answering how the work is developed,how it is constructed,which scientific questions will be addressed,and the significance and research gaps towards this topic? Chapter 2 is the section of global APTN construction,which covers the theoretical basis of the study and the formation mechanism of global agricultural trade network.Chapter 3 analyzes the characteristics of the global APTN and the spatial and temporal evolution trends.It also quantifies the stability of the network and the direct impact of major source countries on China's trade disruptions in light of the current unstable international dynamics.In Chapter 4,it analyzes the impact of agricultural trade on the dietary and nutritional security of undersupplied regions from the perspective of importing countries.In addition,chapter 5 is used to examine the economic returns of exporting countries through agricultural trade and the optimization of trade structure.Then,a multi-dimensional simulation of the supply-demand balance of agricultural products during the population peak in China and the important role of trade in bridging the supply-demand gap are illustrated in Chapter 6.Ultimately,the final chapter presents the implications of global agricultural trade for China's food security and research outlook.The main conclusions of the article are as follows:(1)The global ATPN nodes are relatively stable,although the characteristics of increasing network density,decreasing average path length,and strengthening diversification tendency are becoming more and more prominent.From the “dominant”American and Asian groups to the “diversified” trade pattern,the formation of APTN indicates that the network of agricultural trade has spread around the world;however,the “core-edge” network structural characteristics remain unchanged.The global trade pattern has formed with the United States,Brazil and Argentina as the leading exporters and China,Egypt,Japan and South Korea as the main importers.Although the current stability of China is 0.69 with a relatively small trade risk,this value will decrease rapidly if the number of interrupted countries continues to increase.(2)Accelerated trade in agricultural products and increased global agricultural production capacity have contributed to more than 60% of the population meeting the nutritional standard of a calorie intake above 2,700 kcal in 2019.Furthermore,the majority of the global population has primarily escaped from starvation.Trades in agricultural products is not only a meaningful way to balance geographic supply and demand but also to improve dietary and nutritional security in those regions in need.The Netherlands is one of the leading importers with a high per-capita dependence on foreign calorie supply.As one of the major exporters of high-calorie products,France is the source of calories for many EU countries.Developing countries such as Brazil,Ukraine and Kazakhstan are emerging as critical global suppliers of calories and becoming an essential part of the global diet and nutrition security.(3)Over the past 35 years,the main trade relationships between the physical and value networks have gradually converged,with the main connecting lines moving from deviation to a near coincidence.Satisfying demand and achieving larger returns are the main objectives of trade activities in each country.The main trade links have evolved from Japan-USA,USA,Canada,France-Soviet Union and EU intra-country links in1986 to the current USA-China,Brazil-China and USA-Mexico links.Emerging economies,represented by China and Brazil,have rapidly emerged as significant demand-and supply-side players,which are the backbone of the sustained development of the network.In particular,China has now become the largest importer in the trade network.Simultaneously,it is the leading exporter in the value-added network.China has strengthened its trade with countries along the "Belt and Road" recently,playing a pivotal role in reshaping the global agricultural trade pattern.(4)During 1986-2019,the supply-demand balance for agricultural products in China changed from positive to negative,which indicates that demand grows faster than production.By simulating the demand for agricultural products in 2050,the total difference between the nine scenarios is expected to reach 1478.8 Mt,which is equivalent to the annual demand of a 950 million Chinese.The three options of simulated production reveal that a gradual increase in the impact variables enhances the production capacity remarkably,but still with various degrees of the supply-demand gap among the demand scenarios.Production option one is expected to meet the demands of scenarios 1-LL,2-LM,4-ML,and 7-HL.However,it differs from Scenario5-MM by 148 Mt and Scenario 3-LH by 118 Mt.When reaching option two,the gap with scenario 5-MM narrows to 117 Mt,and the gap with scenario 8-HM decreases to 290 Mt,which will,to a certain extent,ease the domestic production pressure.The further increase in production capacity to reach option three leaves a supply-demand gap of634 Mt from the highest scenario 9-HH,representing the annual demand for agricultural products of a quarter of the Chinese population,which would put heavy pressure on Chinese agricultural production.Based on the above findings,the study concludes that how to ensure the stability of the network at the global level,especially the stability of the core relationships in the network,will affect the supply security of major importing countries and the economic benefits of exporting ones.Based on the above findings,this study concludes that how to ensure the stability of the network at the global level,especially the stability of the core relationships in the network,will affect the supply security of major importing countries and the economic benefits of exporting ones.For China,it is necessary,domestically,to implement supply-side reforms,strengthen the agricultural base internally,promote scientific and technological progress,expand large-scale farming,specialized production,and improve comprehensive agricultural production capacity;Externally,positive to strengthen trade ties with countries along the “Belt and Road” to promote China's imports to a more stable and balanced direction.