Analysis Of Factors Influencing Food Consumption And Long-Term Food Production-Consumption Balance Forecast In Jiangsu Province

The paper analyzes the spatial layout features, dynamic and regularity of grain production and the patial differences in environmental conditions of food-producing resources in Jiangsu Province. And it regards the county (city, district) as the basic administrative unit by the use of GIS systems and spatial analysis methods on the basis of statistical data in2009. We have done researches on the structure and the number evolution and the laws of the consumption of food of urban and rural resident in nearly10years from two aspects that the family daily food consumption and the market household consumption outside the restaurant. The theory analyzes the main related factors affected food consumption through path analysis, which include population and demographic structure, the per capita GDP, per capita food production, eating habits, technological level, food prices and so on. On the basis of logistic model, it analyzes the features of main factors which have close relations of food production and consumption, and then pre-evaluate of it and its balance between the2020and2030. In the end, it put forward specific suggestions for how to correctly guide food consumption and ensure food security in Jiangsu Province according to the results. The main conclusions are as follows:1. With highlighted advantages of climate resources, the food production and consumption of Jiangsu province plays an important role in the country. With the condition of high level of economic development, population density, mechanization and modernization, less cultivated land resources and small ecological environment capacity, Jiangsu on behalf of advanced development level, and also reflects the direction of future development in China. With the increase in income, the diet quality of residents in Jiangsu Province is improved entirely but its structure is unreasonable. Rural residents is not high intake of cereals, and vegetables, fruits, milk and soy intake is generally low while urban is high intake of poultry meat, aquatic products, and edible oil.2. The per capita grain consumption of residents is small fluctuations in the aggregate but their food structure has undergone major changes in1999-2009. The main reason is Combination of factors such as economic development, improvement of living standards, reduce labor intensity, as well as aging population. In totally, food consumption, seed use of grain consumption is reduced; feed grain consumption and processing of grain increased; grain losses decreased slightly but little change.The trends are not only consistent with the findings of many Chinese scholars but also with the results to the process of economic development in other countries found by international scholars. With economic development, the food consumption of urban and rural also has significant differences. The per capita food consumption of rural residents in Jiangsu was significantly higher than urban residents in1999-2009, and the ration consumption of rural residents decreased more significantly than urban. Bucking the trend of ration consumption, rural residents’per capita consumption of animal foods was significantly lower than urban residents, and the consumption of urban and rural showed an upward trend, which rate of increase is insignificant in10years. Affected by population changes, the changes of total and per capita ration consumption of urban and rural residents in Jiangsu Province are not synchronized. The total and per capita ration consumption of rural residents showed a rapid decline overall, but per capita ration consumption decreased significantly weaker than the total. At the same time, the even more obvious difference is that per capita ration consumption of urban residents showed a steady downward trend, and total ration consumption of urban residents showed a steady upward trend, and total ration consumption increase higher than the decline in per capita ration consumption in1999-2009. Nearly10years, the per capita food consumption of urban and rural declined, while per capita dining food consumption outdoor shows a clear upward trend.3. The factors affected the per capita ration and feed grain consumption are urban and rural population ratio, per capita GDP, per capita food production, eating habits of residents, food prices and so on. The province’s urban and rural population ratio is negatively correlated with per capita ration food consumption and is positively correlated with per capita feed grain. Per capita GDP is negatively correlated with per capita food consumption and is positively correlated with per capita feed grain. The per capita grain production and per capita ration, feed grain consumption of residents in Jiangsu Province shows a certain relationship between supply and demand. In addition, the dietary habits, the level of culture, science and technology development level and food prices also indirectly affect the per capita ration, feed grain consumption. The correlation and path analysis of the per capita ration, feed grain consumption of residents in Jiangsu Province and main related factors shows that urban and rural population ratio, per capita GDP and per capita food production are the main reason of per capita ration, feed grain consumption and they contribute70%to the grain consumption, while some indirect factors such as diet habit of residents in Jiangsu, culture level, technology level, grain price and so on contribute30%to the grain consumption. Among these, the influence degree of the main factors is urban and rural population ratio>per capita GDP>per capita food production. With the increase of urban and rural population ratio and per capita GDP and changes of per capita grain production, the per capita grain consumption shows a steady trend in recent10years, due to the negative effect of per capita food consumption and the positive effect of per capita feed grain consumption and the changes of per capita processing of grain and seed use of grain consumption and grain losses. So the results of path analysis to the per capita ration, feed grain consumption are also applicable to per capita grain consumption.4. On the whole, the food producing resources、technology and conditions in Jiangsu can basically meet the food consumption of the resident population in the year of2020and2030, the food production and consumption can achieve a basis balance, even a slight surplus to fulfill the output strategic objective. The grain production is greater than the consumption of grain in2020, and the surplus of grain is3.45million tons, but its confidence interval is [-164,701], which do not rule out the possibility of the grain production shorter than consumption. The grain production is greater than the consumption of grain in2030, and the surplus of grain is0.95million tons which only one-third of surplus in2020, but its confidence interval is [-314,376], which the possibility of the grain production shorter than consumption is greater than in2020.