Several Coordinated Development Problems Research On Comprehensive Transportation In China

Comprehensive Transportation System (CTS) is a complex system that includes railways, highways, civil aviation, and waterways , pipeline transportation. With the express developing of Chinese society economy, traffic already becomes the bottleneck to influence the development. The essential of this question is that CTS do not develop coordinately. So, the thesis focus on the several coordinated development problems those research on comprehensive transportation in china.Firstly, we analyse entirely the influence factors of passenger and freight transportation in which four traffic modes of comprehensive transportation in China with using the grey incidence theory, and to find out the chief influence factors of the traffic modes'passenger and freight transportation. The study indicates that the Gross Domestic Product (or per capita Gross Domestic Product) and annual per capita consumption expenditure are the main factors which influence passenger and freight traffic of comprehensive transportation.We build a combination forecast mode based on entropy by using information entropy and combination forecast theory. The mode has a good forecasting precision through demonstration contrast research. And then, we use the mode to forecast the total traffic of passenger and freight, turnover volume of passenger and freight from 2004 to 2020 in China, and to make sure the rational scale of the comprehensive transportation in future.We apraise entirely the function efficiency of the railway, highway, aviation, water transportion and pipeline transportation in China through the aspects from relative validity, scale income, investment surplus to output red by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The result indicates the scale income of four traffic modes is increase by degrees. The income effect is better if investing more in these transportation modes. This phenomenon also shows that the investment of comprehensive transportation is not enough in the other side.We give a appraise model which can evaluate the coordinated development degree among several subsystems by using the thought of DEA and coordinated development theory. And we use the appraise mode to evaluate the coordinated development degree among the four traffic variety of comprehensive transportation in China. The result indicates that the degree of coordinated development is highest between railway and water traffic, is better between highway and railway or water traffic, and is lowest between aviation and other three traffic modes.Through studying of the coordinated development relation between integrated transportation system and society-economy system in China, we find out that the investment in field of comprehensive transportation and society-economy is deficiency, and the deficiency degree in integrated transportation system is worse than in society-economy system. It explains that traffic already becomes the bottleneck to influence the development of economy.We researched and analysed the several coordinated development problems about integrated transportation in china in the thesis. It can provide theoretical warranty to improve the function efficiency of all traffic modes, afford amelioration direction and quantity for resolving the coordinated development problems among all kinds of traffic modes and between transportation and society-economy availably.