Some Researches On Coordinated Development Between Comprehensive Transportation And Economy

Transportation is the important base and premise of economic development, and it is a basic protection industry. There exist important relationship between economic development and transportation. Comprehensive transportation and economic development are mutually improved and coordinated development to promote sustainable social and economic development. Based on systems theory and economic theory, using qualitative and quantitative analysis method, the thesis focus on research of several related issues on coordinated development of comprehensive transportation and economy in China. The main contents of the thesis are as follows:(1) The development of transport can be affected by various factors such as external environment, social and economic development. With the information entropy and gray correlation theory, the concept of balance degree is introduced, which not only can be used to analyze such these various factors, but also can be used to find the main influence factors. Compared with grey correlation method, this method avoids the shortage of covering balance when the large fluctuation of grey correlation coefficient exists.(2) Considering the continuous growth of comprehensive transportation demand and combined with the main influencing factors of transportation demand in China, a local regression prediction model is established based on grey correlation and fuzzy C-means clustering. A new method on solving Markov state transfer probability matrix is put forward, and the state transfer probability matrix for the structure of transport demand is estimated. Then using Markov forecasting model established, the transport demand structure of China were forecasted. Empirical analysis results show that the two prediction models have higher prediction accuracy. Accurately predict of transport demand not only can help decision makers understand the reasonable size of transport demand in future, but also provides scientific evidence to analysis the optimization and evolution of demand for transport system.(3) In order to study the relationship between transportation and economic growth from a macro perspective, an economic growth model with transportation factors is constructed based on New-classical Growth Theory. And the action mechanism and influence path of transportation on regional economic growth are revealed through the dynamic analysis of economic growth. On the basic of statistic, the paper applies Granger causality test to investigate the relationship between comprehensive transportation and economic growth. The results show that there exist leading relations between economic growth and transportation. Taking two different stages of economic development in Jiangsu province as an example, a method of grey correlation was introduced to analyze for the correlation analysis of economic growth and transport structure. The results show that there exists higher correlation between the two with the rapid economic development.(4) In order to investigate the current efficiency situation of transport, and provide a theoretical guidance in improving efficiency, a class of network data envelopment analysis model is constructed when each transport system is divided into several sub-processes. According to the data availability, two different network DEA models are constructed to estimate the technical efficiency of each sub-process and transport network efficiency. Then the impact of transport sub-processes on transport network efficiency has been analyzed in detail. Comparing with traditional DEA model, the new model is more practical because of better determining the source of the inefficiency, which proposes theoretical basis and strategies for improving operational performance.(5) Based on the analysis of uncoordinated factors in the process of transportation and economy development, the thesis not only investigates internal inducement and external inducement of uncoordinated development about compound systems using self-organization theory, but also gives the coordinating process of the cross systems. Then the coordination operational mechanism on coordinated development between comprehensive transportation and economy system is studied from five aspects.(6) Based on the theory of sustainable and harmonious development, thesis proposes a set of evaluation index system about coordinative development of transport, economy and environment, and then establishes a new evaluation model of coordinated development to evaluate the coordinated development degree among transport, economy and environment. The results show that the coordinated development degree of economy-transportation-environment is greater volatility in some years, but overall the coordinated development degree of the complex system is on the rise.