Research On Changjiang Shipping Logistics Developing Strategy

This paper systemically researches the present situations, strategic positioning, demands, goals, arrangements and measures of the Changjiang shipping logistics development, makes the definitions and predictions for the Changjiang shipping logistics demands, establishes a more reasonable goal valuation system, systemically researches the arrangement in time and space of the Changjiang shipping logistics development and proposes the strategic important points and strategic measures of the Changjiang logistics development.The Changjiang shipping always occupies important position in the regional logistics development because of great freight volume, low cost, save investment, less occupied land, combined advantages of ports and hubs. In 2003 the water volume completed by six provinces and two municipalities under the Central Government along the Changjiang River had reached 726 million tons that accounted for 17% of total social freight volumes; the circular flow volume of the water transport goods was 1,030 billion ton-kilometers that accounted for 64.14% of total social freight volume and the circular flow volume. In which in 2003 the freight volume completed by the Changjiang main-line shipping was 320 million tons, the increasing rate was 6% comparing with 2002. 80% iron ore, 72% crude oil, and 83% power coal needed by the large-size enterprises along the Changjiang River are guaranteed by the water transport of the Changjiang River.At present the Changjiang shipping logistics has entered into a rapid development period. The excellent tread in basic facility construction, market main body and development environment has appeared. But some issues still exist, for example, the general development strategy and plan are short, the development of logistics elements between regions is unbalanced, the basic facility of logistics is not enough complete, the fusion degree between logistics idea and shipping enterprises is not high and the shipping logistics talents are short and so on. The logistics development of the Changjiang shipping is an inevitable and necessary selection. Taking the fusion between the logistics idea and the shipping development as the base of the Changjiang shipping logistics development, further exerting the advantages of ports and hubs, fostering shipping logistics enterprises with competitive power, strengthening the integration of logistics resources, enhancing constructions of transport channels and information channels, and promoting grows and constructions of shipping logistics talent teams and so on all of these are the inspiration drew from the practices of logistics development at home and abroad.In the area along the Changjiang River the state of regional economies has been basically formed that respectively takes Chongqing, Wuhan, both Nanjiang and Shanghai as the center of the Changjiang upper beaches, middle breaches and lower beaches. Due to here there are rich natural resources, great fabrication capacity; an industrial band along the Changjiang River has been basically formed. At the same time the export-oriented economies in these regions have been developed rapidly and the steps of opening to the outside world will be accelerated. Our research methods are: using historically yearly data, adopting quantitative methods such as time sequence model, linear regression, exponential smoothing and so on to make necessity analysis and judgment for the historic development treads of various prediction index; at the same time referring plans made by relevant planning departments and traffic transport departments, analyzing numerous constraint conditions and selecting major constraint factors, and finally making limit and adjustment for the prediction results obtained from various used methods. In addition it is very necessary to invite some specialists who have rich experience in logistics demand prediction to analyze the prediction results. The prediction results show in 2010 and 2020 the total freight volume completed by six provinces and two municipalities under the Central Government along the Changjiang River will respectively reach about 7.05 and 11.7 billion tons; in 2010 the all-social total storage in area will be 8.35 billion tons; in 2020 will be 13.5 billion tons. In 2010 the freight volume of the Changjiang main-line will be 590 million tons, the average yearly increasing rate will be 7.1% comparing with 2003; in 2020 the freight volume of the Changjiang main-line will be 800 million tons, during the period of 2010～2020 the average yearly increasing rate will be 3.1%. In the demand of information, the prediction shows during the period of 2010～2020 the EDI information center of the Changjiang Ports and Shipping will be rapidly established and become a breach of the Changjiang shipping logistics information platform construction. The strategic positioning of the Changjiang shipping logistics is: the powerful support of the economic development along the Changjiang River, the important guarantee of the coordinate development of regional economies along the Changjiang economic band and the expansion of opening to outside world, the concentric reflection of the Changjiang shipping strategic advantages and the objective requirements of constructing save-type society in China.Based on the characteristics of the Changjiang shipping logistics development and its environment constraint conditions the Changjiang shipping modern logistics strategic goal system shall be constituted in five main aspects, they are: basic facility construction, industrial management, development environment, talent training and constraint valuation. In addition based on the prediction for the possible reached level of the Changjiang shipping modern logistics development in 2020, three goal plans, including leading type, moderate leading type or appropriate type shall be primarily worked out. Then based on the three basic plans of statistic goals and utilizing level analysis method to calculate the weight factor each plan, the results show the moderate leading type plan shall be selected as the optimum plan. The general goal of the Changjiang shipping modern logistics development is: relying on the economic development along the Changjiang River, applying modern logistics idea, taking the channel construction as the base, taking the construction and development of logistics centers (garden areas) as the nucleus, taking the development of information technology as the leading we plan to spent about 15 years to establish a modern Changjiang shipping logistics service system which will be smooth in material flow, low in cost, convenient and high efficiency, safe and reliable, energy preserve and environment protection, clear in levels, reasonable in structure, suitable to the economic development along the Changjiang River, moderate leading, specialization, modernization and socialization.The general arrangement of logistics development of the regions along the Changjiang River is: in the lower beaches an international logistics center whose nucleus is both Shanghai and Nanjing shall be constituted which will be suitable to the whole world economic integration; in the middle beaches the regional logistics center and local logistics central group whose nucleus is Wuhan shall be constituted whose main functions are: transit shipment and distribution radiating to whole country; in the upper beaches the regional logistics center and local logistics central chain whose nucleus is Chongqing shall be constituted whose main functions are: product collection and distribution radiating to the China west area. If the Changjiang port logistics garden areas are divided into four levels: international logistics center, regional logistics center, local logistics center and port logistics garden area, applying fuzzy cluster analysis method to classify all the Changjiang ports, the Nanjing port, the Wuhan port and the Chongqing port are suitable to be build as the port of regional logistics center. The Yibin port, the Luzhou port, the Wanzhou port, the Yichang port, the Yueyang port, the Huangshi port, the Jiujiang port, the Anqing port, the Wuhu port, the Ma'anshan port, the Zhenjiang port, the Suzhou port, the Nantong port, total 13 ports are suitable to be build as the port of local logistics center. The Shuifu port, the Fuling port, the Badong port, the Zhicheng port, the Jingzhou port, the Honghu port, the Ezhou port, the Wuxue port, the Chizhou port, the Tongling port, the Yangzhou port, the Changzhou port, the Taizhou port, the Jiangyin port, total 14 ports are suitable to be build as the port logistics garden area. The Shanghai port with excellent geographical advantages and incomparable software and hardware conditions is the best selection as the international logistics center.In the development of the Changjiang shipping logistics the driven role of all-level governments shall be fully exerted. The essential breakthrough in the key links such as the arrangement of port logistics systems and the construction of logistics supporting and guarantee systems shall be achieved. In the first stage (up to 2010) the key links shall be broken through; in the second stage (2015) the logistics in the nuclear areas of the Changjiang shipping shall be developed; in the third stage (2020) the Changjiang shipping quality shall be overall promoted and the reasonable Changjiang shipping logistics systems shall be established. The essential implement strategy is: first improving the space arrangement and construction of the Changjiang shipping port logistics systems; secondly, improving the construction of the Changjiang shipping logistics supporting and guarantee systems; third, driving the progress of standardization and specialization in ship type and developing large-scale ships; fourth, optimizing the environment of the Changjiang shipping logistics development; fifth, fostering with great efforts the professional logistics talents. Our tasks are: setting-up the Changjiang shipping advantage strategy, laying stress on the logistics development strategy taking ports as the nucleus, strengthening the channels priority development strategy, strengthening the information leading development strategy, strengthening the market integration strategy, fostering and introducing logistics talents strategy and so on.