Heilongjiang Province, Agricultural Industrial Structure Optimization

The strategic adjustment of agriculture and the rural economic structure is the important content of socialist new rural construction and the significant deployment of concerning the agriculture and the rural economy long-term develop and the national economic overall situation, yet the adjustment of the agricultural production structure is the base of this strategic adjustment. Implementation of the strategic adjustment of the agricultural production and the optimizing resources disposition has become the way that the agricultural development must be taken during new period. The adjustment of agricultural production structure involves many factors, scope broad, the meteorology, the season and the growth cycle and so on influence that, the adjustment of the agricultural production structure is more difficult than that of industry, therefore, having the important theory significance and the reality instruction significance regarding the appraisal of the agricultural production structure present situation and the optimized research. Through the paper research, in view of the region resources natural ability and the agricultural production present situation, using the suitable mathematic methods, carrying on scientifically and systematically research to the agriculture industrial structure present situation and the questions of the adjustment, seeking the optimized adjustment plans, carrying on the synthesis appraisal to the optimized plans, providing the reference for the decision-making, which regarding the current research and making reasonable effective adjustment policy of the industry structure, practically advancing the agriculture and the rural economy continually and fast develop has the important theory significance and the practical application value. The paper research has already filled the insufficiency of the agricultural production structure appraisal and the optimized method research, also may indicate the direction for the structure adjustment of the Hei Longjiang province agricultural production.First, this article has conducted the research to the change of the Hei Longjiang province agricultural production structure and the relation of the agricultural production structure and the relation of the agricultural production resultant and the farmers' average income, established the target of the agricultural production structure present situation appraisal and carried on the appraisal to the Hei Longjiang province agricultural production structure present situation , pointed out the questions which exist in the Heilongjiang province agricultural production. Then carried on the forecast to the gain yield, the price of the farm produce, the consumption demand, the population quantity, established the non-linear model which has manifested the economical, social and the ecology synthesis benefit multi-goals plan model which for the main body, many auxiliary models complemented one another agricultural production structure optimizes, carried on the solution of using the heredity algorithm to the model, has had the optimized plan of the Hei Longjinag province agricultural production structure. Finally used the appraisal method that the current front-line data envelope analysis method, makes the reasonable appraisal and the arrangement to various plans comprehensive agricultural production ability and production efficiency, the optimal synthesis benefit best plan supplied to the policy-making to reference. This article mainlyresearch work that following six:1.Established the functional relation model that each industry change in the agricultural production and the agricultural production output, through delivers the elasticity, analyzed the contribution to which various agricultural production department to the Hei Longjiang province agricultural growth, the growth which the agricultural total output left respectively by the agriculture, the forestry, the animal husbandry, the fishery, various departments grew the proportion which drew probably is 67.6%,7.6%,27.2% and 2.2%.Agricutural and the animal husbandry growth to the economy draws the ability to be bigger, therefore, the development of the agriculture and the animal husbandry has the bigger impetus function to the development of the Hei Longjiang province agricultural economy. The Hei Longjiang province total agricultural output value rate of increment and the total output value rate of the increment between the agriculture and the animal husbandry has the extremely similar curve change form, from which we can see that the potential growth of the agriculture and the animal husbandry and the Hei Longjiang province total agriculture output value potential growth have the huge mutual influence relation in long-term. In this foundation, analyzing the relation of the Hei Longjiang province agricultural production structure change and the farmers' income, with the gray connection analytic method, studied the agricultural production structure change rate to the income growth influence to farmers, the agriculture, the forestry, the animal husbandry and the fishery total output value and each industry output value change to the income growth influence to farmers, the agriculture, the forestry, the herd and the fishing to the income growth influence to farmers, obtained the agricultural structure adjustment and the farmers' income increasing exist close relation, the adjustment and the optimization to the agricultural production structure is the effective way that enhances the Hei Longjiang farmers to receive the income level. Because the agriculture (plant industry) is affected in a big way by nature factors and the profit is fairly low, the higher proportion agricultural output inevitably suppress the stable fast growth which the Hei Longjiang province farmers receives, therefore we'll have further to develop the non-agricultural production industry from new on, simultaneously pay great attention to the optimized plant industry internal structure, expanding the proportion economical crops and feed crops. The proportion of the animal husbandry and the fishing output enhancement may promote the fast growth which the farmers received, from now on suppose vigorously to develop the cultivation industry, which not only gain the higher attachment profit, drive and improve the plant industry development, alleviate the pressure of the present grain gradual supplies surplus, open up the farmers' source of income, increase the farmers' income, but also may improve the farmers' meals structure, improve the farmers' quality of life.2. In the application of the information study related theory, carrying on the rational appraisal and the analysis to the Hei Longjiang province agricultural industrial structure rationale theory, uses the structure similar factors to carry on the comparative analysis among different agricultural region production structure, the structure change coefficient carries on the appraisal to the agricultural production structure change process, the concept of the information as the measure target of the agricultural production structure system stability various industries output account for the total output the proportion as the corresponding probability, calculates structure similar coefficients, information entropy and structure change coefficients of the Hei Longjiang province agricultural production structure, and compare with Jilin, Liaoning, the nation and the USA to carry on the contrast analysis. Discovered through the above data analysis that, the Hei Longjiang province agriculture various industries department development is not balance, the proportion relations is uncoordinated, plant industry excessively high, bur other industrial proportion is somewhat low, agriculture industrial structure stability is worse, the direction of structure adjustment is correct, but the governed speed is lower, the system overall function display is decided by the system internal structure, the unreason of the structure directly affects the production efficiency and the economic profit, only practically improving agricultural production structure, can strengthen the comprehensive benefit of the agricultural production.3.Has established the Hei Longjiang province paddy rice per unit area yield Logistic model, carried on the analysis to the production potential of the Hei Longjiang province paddy rice, definite the greatest output of the Hei Longjiang provihce paddy rice production and forecast change tendency of the rice output in future; Has established the non-linear return model of the corn, the wheat and the soybean output, and carried on the forecast to the output and the profit; Using the fit error combination weight method in the combination forecast method to the Hei Longjiang province yam, the flax, the beet, the flue-cured tobacco, the millet, the sorghum, the fuel oils, the vegetables, the fruits and melons class 13 kinds of main crops' yield per unit of area changes along with the time has made the forecast and the computation; Established periodic function model of the farm price change, calculated the model parameter using the regression analysis method, and carried on the forecast to the agricultural production price; Using the expansion linear expenses model (ELES) to the Hei longjiang province average per person demand of the main agriculture, the livestock and the aquatic product to make the forecast; Choosing the mathematical model which adapted to the non-linear restriction population growth to male the forecast to the Hei Longjiang province population in 2010.Carring the research to the animal husbandry net-income with the combination non-linear fitting method. Makes the forecast using the Jenny mathematical model to the soil organic content inspects the social demand situation using the demand short expectation. Above the model established and the analysis have laid the foundation for the agricultural production structure optimized research.4.systematically analyze the criterion of the sustainable agriculture industrial structure optimization disposition to realize the economic efficiency, the ecology and the social efficiency three aspects the most superior designs objective function that should well reflect the target as far as possible the actual condition. The policy-making variable including in the plant industry each kind of crops sown area, in the animal husbandry each kind of poultry saves raises the quantity , in the forestry each king of the forest and the sown area of the tree seed, in the aquaculture industry each kind of sown area of the aquatic product; The objective function including the economic target function by the various industrial sum of the economical net-income is the biggest, the ecological objective function takes the soil organic content as an important ecological target measure , takes the questions such as the conservation of water and soil condition, green cover as the restrain condition, the social efficiency model takes the shortage minimize of the main agriculture, the livestock, the aquatic product as the target function; Manifested that we has established including the natural resources, the sown area, the ecology as well as the social demand various restraint condition, has established the agricultural production structure optimized model of facing the sustainable development.5. Systematically research the basic principle and the realization technology of the heredity algorithm, design the suitable function using the multi-goals fitting weight function method, obtained the pareto solution sequence which based on the sustainable agriculture industrial structure optimized of the inherited multi-goals optimized algorithm and obtained the four optimized plan of the Hei Longjiang agricultural production structure, and carried on the computation to various plans benefit.6. DEA synthesis appraisal of many plans. This article will appraisal the policy-making unit which has many inputs and output target, relative valid data envelope analysis synthesis appraisal method will be applied to the agriculture industrial structure question research. All adjustment plans will be regarded as the homogeneity production decision -making unit, establish DEA model using each item data of the input and the output which is calculated by the optimized model, carry on the synthesis appraisal to various plans relative validity and optimal. Use one new DEA decision-making unit arrangement method, optimal preferred plan. The traditional DEA appraisal method only can divide the decision-making unit into DEA effective, weak DEA effective and non-DEA effective three big kinds, regarding the decision-making units which belong to the same DEA effective, it can not further compare its relative fit and unfit quality. This article in the traditional DEA appraisal foundation introduces the concept of "the ideal policy-making unit", establish an ideal plan which can make each item slightly causes its investment and deliver in a big way. Structure C~2R model using plan and the reasonable public weigh, introduce "the efficiency appraisal index " which is a foundation, according to the order of the efficiency appraisal index of the various policy-making plan, screens the optimization adjustment plan of which synthesis benefit is the best.Carried on system appraisal and the optimized analysis regarding the Hei Longjiang province agricultural production structure, which has certain novel in the selected topic, taked the entropy concept in the research as the agricultural production structure appraisal target, established the non-linear model which the agricultural production structure optimized, carried on the solution using the heredity algorithm, many plans about DEA synthesis appraisal aspect, all of them have certain innovation.Used many kinds of mathematical model methods in the research, conducted systematically the quantitative investigation and the analysis in view of the Hei Longjiang province agriculture industrial structure optimization adjustment, proposed the agriculture production structure adjustment plans which can instruct the production practice and has the certain policy-making reference value. This article has the research of regarding mathematical method fundamental research, has the analysis and the research of uniting the Hei Longjiang province production practice, as well as unites the fundamental research and the production practice, unites the quantitative investigation and the qualitative, explores a new path for the agriculture production structure optimized research.