The Research On Synthesis Appraisal Of The Transformation Of Foreign Trade Growth Pattern

Since the reform and open policy, our foreign trade has obtained great achievement. In 1978, the total amount of foreign trade was only 20.64 billion dollars, and this number increased to 1421.91 billion dollars in 2005 with the annual average growth rate approaching 15%. There is no doubt that China has become a big trading country. However, the growth of our trade was quantity featured, with many deep problems.The traditional foreign trade values induced the extensive foreign trade growth way. The original foreign trade appraisal indices emphasize the growth of quantity, so they can't embody the improvement of quality. Without a set of reasonable evaluation procedures, the transformation of foreign trade growth way is hard to be put into effect, and hardly can we find out what progress we have achieved, what problems still exist, what the objectives are, what the next step is. So we need a new set of operatable indices.The objective of this paper is to set up a set of indices that can reasonably evaluate the foreign trade growth pattern of our country, assess the performance of the transformation. Accordingly, we can take measures to realize the transformation from extensive way to intensive way.This paper is divided into 5 parts. The first part, "The Introduction", undertakes the research background, research meaning, research thinking way and method, the innovations and difficulties etc. The second part is "Review on the research of foreign trade growth pattern", which begins with the identification of some similar definitions, then analyzes the evolvement of the theory of evaluating foreign trade, at last reviews on the relative empirical research and summarizes the deficiency. An index system of foreign trade growth pattern is set up in the third part. At the beginning this part depicts the method to set up an index system, and based on this, sets up the index system from the aspects of quantity increase, structure optimization, profit promotion and sustainable development. Part IV is to decide the entire evaluation model. I first work out every index's weight by taking AHP, and then select the method to remove the dimensions, in the end decide the comprehensive evaluation model according to the specialty of the whole evaluation. In Part V, on the basis of the model above, this paper carries on empirical studies on transformation effect of foreign trade growth pattern during the Tenth Five Years Plan. According to the results, we can draw the conclusion that the growth pattern is optimizing, but transformation effect of each sub-system is different. Quantity development system remained at the rise stage; The whole foreign trade structure unceasingly obtained optimization, but its market and objective structure actually continuously worsen; The foreign trade sustainable development situation had a bigger promotion; The trade benefit growth saw many obstacles.Utilizing the synthesis appraisal model established in this paper to measure our foreign trade growth way, we can find that there are still certain deficiencies though great achievements have been obtained during the Tenth Five Years Plan. For further optimizing the foreign trade growth way during the eleventh Five Years Plan, government of all levels must look for the accurate mentality, correctly understand the significant of quantity growth, comprehensively impetus foreign trade structure optimization, positively seek ways to promote trade benefit, firmly implement the foreign trade sustainable developmental strategy, guarantee our foreign trade develop in a continually, healthy, and stable way.