A Strategic Assessment Model And Empirical Research For China's Non-regeneration Energy

With the accelerative process of industrialization and urbanization, the non-regeneration energy sources has become bottlenecks restricting the sustainable development of China's social and economics. To ensure the sustained and healthy development of national economy, we have to get a scientific understanding about China's energy development especially non-regeneration energy development status and trends, and according to the state's economics sustainable development strategic needs to research the problems coming from the sustainable utilization of China's non-regeneration energy. All these can ensure the national economics sustainable development strategy objectives be realized smoothly and the formation of the situation in which the resources can be conserved, environment be protected, and the society development be harmonious.From the national and regional perspective, in the overall framework of economics, energy, environment, technology development, this paper established a comprehensive non-regeneration energy strategy assessment model, and use this model, the paper put up empirical research about the most critical problems such as supply capacity, production efficiency and environmental impact of China's non- regeneration energy sustainable use, discussed the countermeasure to promote non-regeneration sustainable use for government. This will further improve various policies of China's non- regeneration energy development and utilization and engender positive impact to China's energy security.This paper summarizes the theoretical basis of non- regeneration energy strategy assessment firstly. Although energies did not take up prominent status in production and they were seen as an intermediate variables generated by the major production elements such as capital, labor and land in the perspective of neoclassicism economist, and energy elements were not included in the mainstream economic growth theory framework basically, "Oil crisis" has brought tremendous impact to all governments and economists. Since then, the status, role and effect of natural resources, particularly energy resources in the economic growth have aroused the concern of the Government and economists. The Hollowness of natural resources and the endogenous economic growth theory under the environment and resources restraints revealed the basic rule that one-sidedly pursuit of economic output and the economic growth rate but disregard of the resulting waste of resources and destruction from over-exploitation of energy resources would eventually lead to the exhaust of natural resources. The inter-generational transfer and optimal allocation theory of natural resources fully showed that in order to achieve social objectives of optimal sustainable development, the management of energy resources will be more focused on the sustainability of protection. Hotel ling's rule and the optimal exhaust theory of non-regeneration energy indicate that technological progress, particularly mining technology and the improvement of smelting technology in a certain period of time would produce a significant impact on non-regeneration energy production costs and sostenuto drop the marginal costs in energy resources exploitation. These will promote the sustainable use of non-regeneration and guarantee the coordination and comprehensive development of energy, economic and social security. For the sake of describing the importance of non-regeneration energy in of the national economy, this paper also discussed the economic impact of energy supply disruptions and the contribution of energy security to the socio-economic development about non-regeneration energy. Energy manufacturers can make the needs of social welfare and social total products weakening by prices acts and the adjustment of output levels, Economic and social sustainable stability developments are facing the risk from inadequate energy products supply. The effective supply and sustainable use of energy has become the basic content and requirements for energy security and economic security. Energy security include stability supply which will meet the national demand for survival and normal development and the utilization safety which includes the Security to meet the needs of the energy supply for national population development in fields of transport and energy production and the energy utilization security of energy consumption and environmental protection. Energy supply security for the country has immense economic value, energy supply security has generated high economic linkage effects what will produce a profound impact on the level of social welfare improvements.The connotation of the non-regeneration energy assessment is identifying and evaluating the impact from social, economic and technological, environmental, and other macroeconomic factors to non-regeneration energy strategic objectives and the strategic choice during the non-regeneration energy development, closely linking the economic development, the environment, social development and non-regeneration energy utilization, emphasizing the resources, and environmental and socio-economic effects and their meaning after the implementation of non-regeneration energy policies, weighing the feasibility and rationality of non-regeneration energy development and utilization policy not only from the economic and technical view, but also considering the resources or environmental impact, and seeking the harmony development for the society, economy, energy, and environment. Chapter III of this paper focuses on the connotations of non-regeneration energy strategy assessment. The non-regeneration energy strategy assessment system mainly includes supply capacity evaluation such as energy production capacity, reserves condition and the level of imports, production efficiency evaluation such as total consumption, economic output and energy efficiency, environmental impact evaluation such as pollutants stock, pollutants structure and the welfare losses and some other evaluation subsystem from the basic content and implementation of conditions of non-regeneration energy. The non-regeneration energy strategy assessment system has some systematic, layered, and dynamic basic characteristics. According to system principle and the basic connotations of non-regeneration energy strategy assessment, we need to combine the system theory, qualitative and quantitative calculation, microscopic analysis and macroeconomic analysis. Take system analysis methods rationally and effectively to research non-regeneration energy strategy assessment problems.With the continuous growth of China's economy, China's total energy consumption is also growing continuously and the energy consumption structure is also evolving to multiplex from single gradually. In order to reveal the status and characteristics of China's non-regeneration energy development and utilization, Chapter IV of this paper explored some of the outstanding problems about China's non-regeneration energy development and utilization by describing the supply and consumption situation of China's non-regeneration energy: With the relaxation of contradictions between aggregate supplies demands of China's non-regeneration energy, the contradictions of structural from energy supply and consumption has become the main contradictions. The unreasonable non-regeneration energy production and consumption structure became one of the important influence factors to China's sustained rapid and healthy economy and society development. The relative lack of oil resources and the resulting dependence on foreign oil imports increase will bring a huge impact to China's petroleum and non-regeneration energy supply even economic and social development. For the operation efficiency of China's energy economic system, China's energy intensity rise to the forefront in the world, and the level of energy industrial technology and labor productivity of China's is low. And what's more, the technical equipment and exploitation method got behind and the resources waste seriously. China's energy utilization was significantly lower than the level of developed countries. China's non-regeneration energy consumption caused serious environmental pollution, in the atmosphere pollution, the emission of SO₂ showed a small upward trend, but smoke and dust emissions are maintained at a relatively high steady state. China's air pollution situation is still grim. Another, In terms of per energy consumption level in the world, China's consumption of non-regeneration energy is still in a lower level.According to the basic content of energy supply, chapter V of this paper established a indexes system from the production capacity energy supply, market conditions, trade situation and the level of consumption of China's, and took empirical researched on the China's non-regeneration energy supply capacity by using factor analysis method. Through the evaluation of China's non-regeneration energy supply capacity found that the main factors which affect China's non-regeneration energy supply capacity are production technology, production efficiency, output growth and economic growth factors. In order to improve China's non-regeneration energy supply capacity, and ensure the energy steady supply which is necessary for China's economy and society development, the country and the energy management sectors should continually attach importance to the technological progress in non-regeneration energy production areas, vigorously promote the continued growth of non-generation energy production, adjust and optimize the energy structure, improve the operating efficiency of socio-economic system.Energy efficiency is one of the most important problems for the sustainable utilization of non-regeneration energy. Chapter VI of this paper measured the total productivity level of China's non-regeneration energy from 1990 to 2006 by using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and grasped the changing trend about the productivity index and the energy efficiency of China's non-regeneration energy. After then, the author measured the scale efficiency, technology efficiency and Malmquist productivity index on the data from 2001 to 2005 of the 30 Chinese provinces by adopting DEA what indicated the regional characteristics and the basic rule of China's non-regeneration energy. The research result revealed that the productivity efficiency of China's non-regeneration energy displays a slow growing state, which attribute to the rising from technology efficiency, scale efficiency and Malmquist productivity index. The utilization of China's non-regeneration energy has been in a healthy development track. However, although the total productivity efficiency has been ameliorated, some provinces' non-regeneration energy displays an non-scale economic problem, whose main influencing factor is the insufficient technology efficiency and technological progress of the uses of energy sources. In order to solve the contradictions between the supply and consumption of China's non-regeneration energy and the bottleneck of the sustainable development in economy and society, we should improve the technology efficiency and technological progress in energy utilization. The energy supervise sector must consummate the nation's energy-saving mechanism, vigorously popularize the advanced production and energy-saving technology, reasonably choose the regional energy input by integrating the regional characteristics of energy utilization, strengthen the energy efficiency management and enhance regional non-regeneration energy production efficiency.The development and utilization of non-regeneration energy polluted the nature environment. Chapter VII of the paper evaluated the environment pollution problems to the development and utilization of China's non-regeneration energy in the view of atmospheric environmental impact, environment cost, the trends of the pollution emissions for main industrial sector and regional energy pollution and the basic rule of environment changes brought out from the development of China's non-regeneration energy. The research result revealed that, for the atmospheric pollution caused by the consumption of single type of energy, the increase of coal consumption is the main reason which led the SO₂, CO₂ emissions to increase in China. The development and utilization structure of China's non-regeneration energy in which the coal consumption is dominant has brought out huge direct economic losses and the loss of public's health from the environment pollution. With the acceleration of China's industrialization and urbanization process, China's atmospheric pollution will be centralized to some important industries, cities and regions. Changing the energy consumption structure, promoting the green consumption, strengthening the identification of health risks about energy consumption, fully eliminating the pollutants and improving the internalization of environmental costs have become the realistic approaches to further improve the environmental quality and public health for China.