Research On Analyzing Methods Of Consumption And Competitive Capacity About Electric Power In The End-use Energy Market

It is very important to increase proportion of electric power among the end-use energy market for optimization of end-use energy consumption structure. The research on consumption characteristic and competitive capacity of electric power can provide strong support for upgrading electric power competitive capacity, which can increase the electric power proportion among end-use energy, and the power enterprises'economic benefit and social effect can be increased.The characteristic of electric power and its importance among the energy market were summarized. Meanwhile, the consumption actuality and characteristic of global world was analyzed, especially for Beijing, which can buildup the foundation for choosing of principle components and indexes for competitive capacity evaluation system about electric power in the end-use energy.To counter the complexity of electric power consumption serial, a novel approach for load analysis was presented based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and influencing factors. The load sequence was decomposed into several intrinsic modes intuitive, the local characteristic information of load can be reflected by them respective. And several measures were adopted to analyze the regularity of the intrinsic modes. Based on the above procedures, the correlations between the intrinsic modes and environmental factors were studied to mine the degree of different factor influence on the modes. The components of the load were concluded with their characteristics discussed in detail. A case studied shows that with the proposed method the characteristics and influential factors of load can be probed deeper.The model research was take for electric power requirement forecasting. Firstly, an ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) based hybrid power load forecasting method was proposed. Through the method, the objective series can be decomposed to several independent intrinsic modes adaptively, and these intrinsic modes are reconstructed as three components based on fine-to-coarse. On the basis of analyzing the features of these components, which are forecasted by respective models. Meanwhile, A novel method of multi-model sifting based on evaluation of trend comparability was presented. The degree of trend comparability between each forecasting curve and actual curve was calculated through the improved gray relation analysis. Thus, the gray relationship degree was got which reflects the optimality of an individual forecasting model. Reference to the value of each gray relationship degree, the better models were chosen from multiple candidate ones. Finally, the integrated optimum model was built with the models sorted out.23 principle components were chosen which belong to the system of competitive capacity about electric power in the end-use energy market, and the relationship among them were defined. Adopting interpretative structural modeling(ISM), the layered structure diagram of system above-mentioned was constructed to support further investigation.The evaluation index system of competitive capacity about electric power in the end-use energy market is constructed included three parts, i.e., competitive results, competitive capacity and competitive potential. From competitive result, the whole picture of electric power consumption can be figured out; and from other two, the factors can be picked out which pivotal influence the competitive capacity of electric power. According to the picked factor, strategy can be established to improve competitive capacity. Based on the building of index system, the evaluation method and flow were provided at the end.