An Analysis Of Urban Housing Demand In China

In this paper, the practical problems and the exiting theories in Urban Housing Demand in China were deeply analyzed. A series of tools and theories, such as the supporting vector machine theory, the revised Hedonic characteristic price model, customer satisfaction level theory and system dynamics, etc. were adopted and the method of combination between theory analysis and reality study, combination between generality and quantification were used to obtain the final results. The main contributions can be seen as follows.1. The factors which affect the urban housing demand were summarized and analyzed. The supporting vector machine theory was used to predict the demand and a prediction model was also presented to improve the prediction precision of gray residence requirement. A case study by using the historical data in Tianjin real estate market was given as well.2. Vague Theory was introduced to analyze the research field of housing characteristics price. The original zone characteristics variable, construction structure characteristics variable, neighborhood environmental characteristics variable were adjusted using Vague Theory. A Hedonic model based on Vague Theory was built to study the typical high level project in Tianjin using sample method. It is shown that the new model in this paper can provide more rational explanations of the effect factors of residence price when comparing it with the traditional Hedonic model.3. The customer satisfaction level theory was adopted in housing exploration, location and decision research field. A housing product exploration, location and decision model based on satisfaction level was built. This model will provide a new method for real estate corporations to make product exploration and decision from the aspect of customer satisfaction level. It was used in detail projects to evaluate the real results.4. The definition and determination of Real Estate Foam were analyzed and the measurement theory of Real Estate Foam was introduced. The real situation of real estate market of China and the government control factor were considered. The foam theory will be considered the same level as supply, demand and price factors simultaneously. Then an improved Real Estate Foam Pre-warning Model based on system dynamics is presented.