Risk Evaluation And Prevention Of China Petroleum Import

China has become the crude oil net importer since 1996. The petroleum import volume shows a rapid increase trend. This article applies the recent 10 years objective data of the National Statistical Yearbook to the grey forecast model and the linear regression method. The yearly gap between China's oil supply and demand before 2020 is obtained, which is the import demand. The import demand enlarges year by year, which presents the great challenge to China's oil continuous supply. Therefore, the issue of petroleum import security must be raised to a strategic level to research and plan.This thesis takes the petroleum import risk as the object of study. It refers to previous research results. It uses comprehensive methods of the analytic hierarchy process, the grey assessment, the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. On the basis of related elementary theories of resources scarcity, sustainable development, risk management and futures trading, the necessity of China petroleum import is discussed, risk factors are analyzed comprehensively, and petroleum import risk is evaluated.The petroleum import risk connotation has the universality and the complexity. According to the selection principle of evaluating indicators, this thesis has set up the petroleum import risk assessment indicator system from import source risk, import price risk, import transportation risk and emergency safeguard risk by analysis of influence petroleum import security's factors.The petroleum import risk's evaluating indicators are usually a number of qualitative. And these indicators are multi-layered and complex. Regarding this kind of appraisal problem, it is very difficult to remove the deviation completely caused by human factors. This causes the appraisal information to be not accurate, not completely real. It is grey. Therefore, this thesis utilizes the grey theory to evaluate this kind of appraisal problem. On the basis of grey system theory and AHP method, a grey hierarchy evaluation model is put forward to assess petroleum import risk quantitatively. And the evaluation model is applied to Japan and China. The results show that Japan and China import's risk are high. At the same time it reveals that both countries' transportation risk and price risk are high. These two risk factors should be the focus to concern and to guard against. Compared with other evaluation methods, this method uses appraisal information of each kind of ash-type degree maximally. It not only avoids failure of the results of the evaluation, but also the evaluation precision is superior to other methods such as fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Therefore it is suitable for this method to be applied to the evaluation of petroleum import risk.Profiting from the overseas petroleum import risk guard experience, the China's petroleum import risk specific guard Countermeasures are proposed from risk management's angle; finally, the influences of current financial crisis upon petroleum import are discussed. Several conclusions studied and obtained in this article are summarized. Several proposals are put forward to the national energy policy research and decision-making department.