Evaluation Of Risk In Real Estate Development Based On Grey Synthesize Evaluation

All along, the development of the real estate industry is closely related to that of a country's or a region's economic. During the past 20 years, China's real estate industry matured and improved continuously. However, compared with the mature one in western countries, China is still in the primary stage, there are still many problems.At present, many real estate enterprises lack adequate understanding on risk management, their risk management agencies haven't been established, nor have they assigned specific risk management staff, not to mention the use of scientific methods of risk identification and assessment. In order to avoid risks and expand revenue, introducing scientific methods to analysis the risk in real estate development objectively and evaluation it rationally is quite essential. It not only ensures the development of the real estate industry, but also be the antecedent of the social economy operation.Given the background of China's real estate, the author analyzes the risk factors of the real estate development, and thus establishes the system of risk assessment. Subsequently, there's a brief introduction of the current model used in the risk assessment, and a respective analysis of their advantages and disadvantages. Then, the research focuses on the model of risk assessment of the real estate development based on the gray system theory, and improves the multi-level gray evaluation model, and then suggests a model called grey synthesize evaluation, which is made up of methods of gray system theory, AHP and Fuzzy. Finally, in order to avoid the risk assessment resulted in failure because of changes in risk factors, some measures are suggested to prevent and respond to risk events.