A Comparative Study Of Business Cycle Fluctuation Between The East And The West Of China

In China, which a developing big country confronted by a tough problem that disequilibrium of economic and social development amongst their regions, policy-making division became more and more to pay attention to level the disparity. But people generally concern about the research on the regional issue from the aspect of the disparity of social economic development, seldom from the aspect of macroeconomic fluctuation and its reasons. Certainly, it has significant meaning to formulating accurate, timely and proper and scientific macroeconomic-policy by exploring and grasping the economy fluctuation and its reasons based on the regional level.Firstly, this paper has studied the general tendencies of the two regions and differentials of the economic fluctuation between them before and after the time of Reform. Secondly, it mainly studies the reasons resulting in the differentials of the economic fluctuation between them. And also this paper has put forward some corresponding policy suggestions.In the first chapter, through the summarizing of the references about the regional economic cycle, we can conclude that focusing on the synchronization among regional economic cycle and on the rules of reaction of the regional economic to national economic cycle have constituted two mainly research fields in present references of studying the regional economic cycle.The second chapter has arrived at a more obvious conclusion through analyzing the characteristic of the economic fluctuation of the two regions there was a larger extent of differentials between the Eastern and Western regional economic fluctuation before 1995 than it was after that time, and the phenomenon of the amplitude has moved from that the Eastern region was far larger than that of the Western to opposite direction. Furthermore, through the analysis by synthesis of the regional economic fluctuation we argued that there are six concrete factors which can give rise to those phenomenon mentioned above, such as market-oriented reform, macroeconomic policy, industrial structure, human capital, inter-region trade and international trade. Therefore, we would analyze centrally these factors in the following.The third chapter has analyzed the relationship between the market-oriented reform and the economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions. The market-oriented reform not only results in the differentials of the economic fluctuation between them and therefore widens their economic development gap, but also gives rise to the regional effect of the macroeconomic policy, and the differentials of the industrial structure and human capital respectively.The forth chapter has analyzed the relationship between the regional effect of the macroeconomic policy and the economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions. Because different extents of marketization can lead to the discrepancy about the degree of sensitivity of the macroeconomic intervening variables to the macro economical policy in different regions, namely the regional effect of the macro economical policy. we make both theory and empirical analysis on the relationship between the regional effect of the macroeconomic policy and the differentials of the economic fluctuation between the Eastern and Western regions and then the result has proved our viewpoint put forward in the second chapter.The fifth chapter has analyzed the relationship between the industrial structure and the economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions. We argue that the fluctuation of the secondary industry fluctuates generally more severely than does the first and the third industry through the analysis, so the differentials of the economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions can be led by the discrepancy of the industry fluctuation. Since the industrial development phase in the Western region has always been lagging behind that in the Eastern, there must exist the discrepancies of the economic fluctuation between the two regions.The sixth chapter has analyzed the relationship between the human capital and the economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions. We believe that the increasing of the stock of the human capital can help to smooth the amplitude of the economic fluctuation and speed the economic growth through the theoretical analysis and with empirical analysis, we consider that the marginal product of the human capital is proportional to the degree of economic opening. The data since 1996 proved that the stock of the human capital and the degree of opening in the Eastern regions is far higher than that of the Western region, so the amplitude of the economical fluctuation in the Eastern region is smaller than that of the Western region, and also the speed of the economical growth is higher than that of the Western region during the same period.The seventh chapter has analyzed the relationship between the interregional and the international trade and the discrepancy of economical fluctuation in the Eastern and Western regions. As far as the interregional trade is concerned, since there has existed a gradually enlarging trade deficit in the Western region after 1996 which could lead to that the economy can't be pulled by it when the Western economy was stagnancy, the economy scene manifests as low trough and big amplitude. On the contrary, the economy has stronger power of resistance during the depression because of the increasingly favorable balance of the inter-regional trade in the Eastern regions. The economy scene manifests as trough was higher than that of the Western region. The second, through empirical study on export, we consider that the discrepancy of the export fluctuation between the Eastern and Western regions become actually the causes of the discrepancy of the economic fluctuation between the two regions. Finally, this chapter has analyzed the aspect of policy that can give rise to those differentials of the export fluctuation between them.The last chapter has summarized the intrinsic mechanism amongst above factors, such as market-oriented reform can lead to the different discrepancies in the Eastern and Western regions, and these discrepancies directly lead to regional effect to the macro economical policy. It finally can give rise to the discrepancy of the regional economical fluctuation derived from the implement style of the macro economical policy. Based on advancing the market-oriented reform, strengthening and improving the macro adjust and control and so on, we have brought forward the suggestions that could narrow the economical fluctuation gap between the Eastern and Western regions.