Research On Government Energy-saving Policy Performance Dynamic Synthesis Evaluation Approach And Application

The thesis puts forth effort on calculating the method with qualitative analysis quantitatively to appraise the result that is implemented of energy-conserving policy. Develop the policy appraisal field of vision to the around two directions depth, studied the differences between the policy of our country energy conservation system and the overseas energy conservation policy system. Propose the enlightenment of energy conservation policy to our country. Divide our country energy conservation policy into the synthesis, the resources, the coal, the oil gas, the electric power, the energy efficiency and the key energy conservation domain, the environment security and the health seven major parts to analyze the historical evolution of our country conservation energy policy.Construct the calculation model of the energy conservation policy about saving contribution. Establish calculation models of "The Energy conservation Long-term Plan", "Energy conservation Law" and "Suggestion of Further Strengthen to Save Energy ".Then these models carried on surveys.Establish the model of Metabolism GM (1,1) to calculate the total energy-saving effect of high-energy-consuming industries in China. Moreover calculate high energy-consuming industries such as coal mining and dressing industry, oil processing industry and also calculate energy-saving effect of key regions where carried on policies. Finally, calculate energy-saving effect of The Yangtze River Delta region and the three northeast provinces.Have proposed it on the basis of judging quantitatively and qualitative analysis is government energy-conserving policy performance comprehensive appraisal frame systems of the frame, have set up on the basis of the fuzzy government energy-conserving policy performance appraisal method to judge separately and on the basis of colony's comprehensive appraisal method of the energy-conserving policy performance of fuzzy government that judge, by carrying on comprehensive appraisal to the implementing effect of government's energy-conserving policy. Used to the method of the theory of ideological gray forecast to evaluate the development trend of the potential energy saving policy and forecast performance of energy-saving policy level the next five years.On the basis of the thought of the gray related theory, regard government's energy-conserving policy (measure) comprehensive performance value as the basic index of gray related analysis, study the energy-conserving policy going ahead of the rest, relation with lagging behind of synchronism about the performance horizontal peak low ebb of energy-conserving policy of performance index value, have carried on research to the time difference of levels of energy-conserving policy performance. Through carry on research to China energy-conserving policy performance level, find energy-conserving policy store sure person who lose efficiency in, have study the energy-conserving policy losing efficiency situation of our country, has analyzed the reason of losing efficiency the energy-conserving policy, have summarize experience and deficiency that government's energy-conserving policy exists, has proposed several countermeasures and suggestions of government's energy-conserving policy.