The Study On Emerging Technology Industrilization Potential Assessment And Its Growth

For the time being, emerging technologies have mushroomed up gradually with the rapid development of science and technology, and emerging technologies have bring obvious impacts on states, industries and societies. There is no countries which can oversee the development of emerging technologies, it can be say that the competition between countries and states are the one of emerging technologies, specially the quality, quantity and speed of commercialization and industrialization of emerging technologies. It is not only a difficult task for countries and enterprises to identify, further evaluate and select emerging technologies, finally commercialize and industrialize emerging technologies; but also an weak issue for researchers to study theoretically.This paper was based on the key research project"Olympic science and technology industrialization and globalization based on Olympic marketing regulation"lead by advisor, professor Huang Lu-cheng, which was supported by The National Nature Science Foundation of China (70629002). This paper has systematically and deeply studied the emerging technology industrialization potential assessment and its growth by attribute comprehensive assessment method, technology foresight, fuzzy consistency matrix and system dynamic.At first, this paper has systematically reviewed the technology evaluation and emerging technology industrialization potential assessment theory and methodologies in China and abroad. The review focuses on the technology assessment methodologies, practices, paradigm development and assessment theory development. Specially the systematical review was made of emerging technology industrialization potential assessment indexing systems, models and methodologies. Secondly, deeply study on meaning and characteristic, classification and forming routing, identification of emerging technology was made. And a comprehensive method was proposed to identify emerging technologies by attribute synthesis method.The systematical analysis was made of emerging technologies industrialization potential meaning and process; the comprehensive analysis and identification made of the influencing factors of emerging technologies industrialization potential, such as technical factors, market factors, industrial factors, conformity factors, environmental and resources factors and risk factors. This part has lay an solid study base for emerging technologies industrialization potential and its growth assessment.Thirdly, this paper proposed three stages model of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment, which is initial selection by team members, re-selection by primary technicians and lab researcher, and final-selection by technology foresight method and fuzzy consistence matrix. By the introduction of technology foresight method and thought, the indexing system of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment was set-up by Delphi method and expert panels; and analyzed the established indexing system by paired t test, obtained the different focuses of emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment and traditional technologies assessment to validate the science and applicability of the established indexing system. The emerging technologies industrialization potential assessment was made based on expert score and technology background information by fuzzy consistency matrix, which is a method combining subject opinion and subjective data, fully utilized available information.Fourthly, the system dynamic model of emerging technologies industrialization potential growth was built to simulate and analyze the basic structure,basic circuit,typically dynamic behavior pattern and their SD characteristics during the growth of emerging technologies industrialization potential. This paper simulates and analyzes the dynamic relationship between emerging technologies industrialization potential growth and influencing factors, and proposed some suggestion of management stratagem and policy for emerging technologies industrialization potential growth.