Study On Tariffs Game Of Sino-Russian Forest Product Trade And Industry Safety

In the context of economic globalization, Sino-Russia strategic partnership of cooperation has made considerable progress. Much attention has been catched to the matter of common concern of development and prosperity between two countries. In recent years, Sino-Russia trade and economic cooperation showed a good momentum of rapid development. As China and Russia's economies are highly complementary, there is great potentiality for two countries' economic and trade cooperation. With this trend, Sino-Russian cooperation in forestry became more and more flourishing. Due to the differences of geographical location, natural resources, human resources, cultural heritage, capital and technology, making have had a beneficial reciprocal trade of forest products on either side. The 21st century is a new era of Sino-Russian cooperation in forestry, international and domestic situation has undergone profound changes taking place quietly.With the economic recovery of Russia, the Russian government started to attach importance to forestry development. They released new forestry policies, including rising export duty on unprocessed timber. At the present stage, China's forestry industry depends heavily on Russia's timber resources, therefore Russian policy change affects us is obvious.Based on tariff policy, we exploreed the changes in Russian policy on the impact of the Sino-Russian trade in forest products and the safety of China's forestry industry.This is very important significance to us,which we can grasp the direction and protection of China's timber supply security. Through analyzing situation of Sina-Russian forest products production and trade, we discussed the evolution and fluctuations of Sina-Russian forest products trade. Through analyzing the index of comparative advantage and complementarity of Sina-Russian forest products, pointed out that China has a comparative advantage in labor-intensive products, Russia has a comparative advantage in resource-intensive products, and the two countries have a comparative advantage of the products are highly complementary, so both sides make profit in international trade.Subsequently, market share model was introduced, analyzing the growing reasons of Russian timber and sawnwood's exports to China. The results show that the reason is the expansion of China's forest products market and the competitiveness of Russian sawnwood.In this paper, tariff game model on Russian timber export tariffs is introduced, we try to use history, dynamic vision to discuss the evolution process of Russian tariff policy and reveal deep background and the future trend. Through analyzing the process and the outcome of Russian-Finnish tariff game customs, provided the reference choices, means and avenue of settling disputesto China to deal with foreign trade. Research achievements are of realistic significance to constitute a pattern of interdependence between China and Russia.By model building the Russian log duty-paid import prices and regression test, it is seen that the logs after the duty-paid import prices depend on the tariff rates, exchange rates, as well as a comprehensive change in export commodity prices.When the exchange rate and the equilibrium price was unchanged, the export tariff's rise will bring about increased costs and thus raise the prices of commodities. The paper establishes the linear regression to verify the Russian log export tariffs on the level of fluctuations in commodity prices and its effect on Sina-Russian forest products trade structure.The paper discussed the influence of China's forestry industry via the new Russian timber export tariffs. By security model building on China's forestry industry, we choose the degree of dependence on Russia as an important index. Use AHP to confirm bid-evaluation proportion scientifically and some conclusions have been made.Finally countermeasures against Russian adjustment in timber export tariffs are proposed. We should established early warning mechanism on industrial security, China's timber reserves mechanism, speed up plantation cultivation and found large-scale industrial parks in Russia.The main innovative points of the dissertation are as follows. The paper discussed the reason of Sino-Russian timber trade growth by using regular market share model. Research of policy simulation system based on the conflict model of Russian log export tariff , to draw the trend of tariff changes.These results provide the basis for improving China's forestry industry. The paper established the security model of China's forestry industry based on the Russian tariff policy adjustment. We will dicuss time-delay of tariff effect and tariffs on the impact of various types of enterprises for further in-depth study.