| As a financing method, project finance successfully solves the fund shortage problem in economic development and gains more and more recognition world-wide. In recent years, project finance has been adopted to construct some large-sale infrastructure projects, the results turn out to be effective, therefore project finance has great market potential in our country. But in general sense, project finance is still in the pioneering stage due to short time development and application. Especially for the important participator of project finance, the loan bank has no effective self-protection methods when operating long-term, large-amount loan, and will easily suffer great loss if project cash flow problem occurs. In order to solve the high risk problems for the loan bank and make full advantage of project finance, a dynamic guarantee model for project finance should be established and researched, which has both academic and realistic significance for fund safety of loan bank.Our research aims at establishing a dynamic guarantee model for project finance, bring out three key issues, including the risk identification problem which the loan bank faces concerning project finance; how to establish the dynamic guarantee model for project finance; how to design a scientific method to adjust bank guarantee deposit. The main research results of our paper are as follows:Firstly, identify the risks which the loan bank faces concerning project finance. Though current research works have stated clearly the risks of project finance, they are not analyzing the risks from the loan bank's angle. First design inquiry questionnaire, sorting data, and then evaluate the data with structure equation model, and finally identify the different categories of project finance risks. The result shows: first category risks are the effects of capital percentage and project investment returning rate; second category risk is the effect of total investment amount; the third category risks, whose effects are small and could be ignored in dynamic guarantee model analysis, include the borrower's credit, the government credit, the wholeness of law enforcement, environment pollution and fine, and so on.Secondly, establish the dynamic guarantee model for project finance. We choose the infrastructure loan loss data of a certain bank from year 2005 to 2007, to simulate respectively the relation models of one multi key risk with bank loss and three single key risks with bank loss by using the MATLAB software. Then calculate the amount of guarantee deposit according to the anticipated bank loss, in this relation model bank loss equals guarantee deposit, by this way we establish the relation model between key risks and bank guarantee deposit in project finance. So our research establishes three single risks dynamic guarantee model and one multi-risk dynamic guarantee model.Thirdly, design a scientific method to adjust bank guarantee deposit. Decide the four principles concerning bank deposit adjustment in project finance: risk effect principle; efficiency stimulation principle; reasonable return principle; step by step adjustment principle. Our research shows the bank deposit adjustment period should be correspondent to different stages of project like construction period, trial-production period and normal production period, with additional consideration of law and finance inspection department restriction on deposit amount.Finally, we analyze the project financing data of a certain sewage disposal factory in Jiangsu Province. By picking out the project total investment amount, loan amount, capital percentage and investment return rate as three key risks, inserting the above figures into the Dynamic guarantee model, using MATLAB software as data analysis instrument, calculate respectively one multi-risk deposit amount and three single risks deposit amount. The result of data analysis shows the dynamic guarantee model established in this paper can effectively decide the scientific deposit amount during project financing process on the basis of risk identification and can adjust the deposit amount according to the changes of key risks. In real practice, the multi-risk dynamic guarantee model is more suitable for the loan bank.
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